Statistics
Page built 2026-10-28
Data as of 2026-10-28
Search
Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for BPA was off by 1.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BPA came 2 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 90 MW, against average demand of 6,790 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.3%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss469 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+4 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 469 MW (6.5%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 7,700 MW, reported 7,231 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
BPA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BPA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:007,041 MW6,904 MW
21 Oct, 06:007,681 MW7,532 MW
21 Oct, 07:008,086 MW7,939 MW
21 Oct, 08:008,078 MW7,951 MW
21 Oct, 09:007,874 MW7,839 MW
21 Oct, 10:007,554 MW7,526 MW
21 Oct, 11:007,310 MW7,292 MW
21 Oct, 12:007,121 MW7,087 MW
21 Oct, 13:007,010 MW6,952 MW
21 Oct, 14:006,917 MW6,861 MW
21 Oct, 15:006,912 MW6,832 MW
21 Oct, 16:006,995 MW6,926 MW
21 Oct, 17:007,161 MW7,106 MW
21 Oct, 18:007,362 MW7,321 MW
21 Oct, 19:007,393 MW7,356 MW
21 Oct, 20:007,271 MW7,214 MW
21 Oct, 21:007,024 MW6,980 MW
21 Oct, 22:006,696 MW6,666 MW
21 Oct, 23:006,372 MW6,411 MW
22 Oct, 00:006,256 MW6,111 MW
22 Oct, 01:006,175 MW6,091 MW
22 Oct, 02:006,135 MW6,082 MW
22 Oct, 03:006,238 MW6,148 MW
22 Oct, 04:006,434 MW6,382 MW
22 Oct, 05:006,972 MW6,895 MW
22 Oct, 06:007,572 MW7,518 MW
22 Oct, 07:007,898 MW7,906 MW
22 Oct, 08:007,919 MW7,914 MW
22 Oct, 09:007,853 MW7,793 MW
22 Oct, 10:007,694 MW7,539 MW
22 Oct, 11:007,531 MW7,352 MW
22 Oct, 12:007,362 MW7,210 MW
22 Oct, 13:007,220 MW7,059 MW
22 Oct, 14:007,173 MW6,957 MW
22 Oct, 15:007,140 MW6,929 MW
22 Oct, 16:007,233 MW7,009 MW
22 Oct, 17:007,395 MW7,224 MW
22 Oct, 18:007,590 MW7,455 MW
22 Oct, 19:007,599 MW7,487 MW
22 Oct, 20:007,481 MW7,360 MW
22 Oct, 21:007,241 MW7,141 MW
22 Oct, 22:006,901 MW6,842 MW
22 Oct, 23:006,598 MW6,580 MW
23 Oct, 00:006,447 MW6,347 MW
23 Oct, 01:006,359 MW6,283 MW
23 Oct, 02:006,306 MW6,275 MW
23 Oct, 03:006,381 MW6,353 MW
23 Oct, 04:006,581 MW6,582 MW
23 Oct, 05:006,957 MW7,054 MW
23 Oct, 06:007,536 MW7,660 MW
23 Oct, 07:007,949 MW8,043 MW
23 Oct, 08:008,032 MW8,070 MW
23 Oct, 09:007,908 MW7,895 MW
23 Oct, 10:007,659 MW7,700 MW
23 Oct, 11:007,430 MW7,508 MW
23 Oct, 12:007,216 MW7,348 MW
23 Oct, 13:007,114 MW7,197 MW
23 Oct, 14:006,958 MW7,126 MW
23 Oct, 15:006,913 MW7,115 MW
23 Oct, 16:006,949 MW7,209 MW
23 Oct, 17:007,099 MW7,413 MW
23 Oct, 18:007,294 MW7,619 MW
23 Oct, 19:007,313 MW7,613 MW
23 Oct, 20:007,268 MW7,478 MW
23 Oct, 21:007,152 MW7,291 MW
23 Oct, 22:006,946 MW7,020 MW
23 Oct, 23:006,777 MW6,777 MW
24 Oct, 00:006,634 MW6,559 MW
24 Oct, 01:006,588 MW6,445 MW
24 Oct, 02:006,576 MW6,405 MW
24 Oct, 03:006,642 MW6,484 MW
24 Oct, 04:006,814 MW6,652 MW
24 Oct, 05:007,066 MW6,948 MW
24 Oct, 06:007,497 MW7,371 MW
24 Oct, 07:007,872 MW7,805 MW
24 Oct, 08:008,084 MW8,039 MW
24 Oct, 09:008,034 MW7,970 MW
24 Oct, 10:007,791 MW7,696 MW
24 Oct, 11:007,553 MW7,410 MW
24 Oct, 12:007,312 MW7,228 MW
24 Oct, 13:007,104 MW7,033 MW
24 Oct, 14:006,981 MW6,912 MW
24 Oct, 15:006,882 MW6,878 MW
24 Oct, 16:006,944 MW6,940 MW
24 Oct, 17:007,080 MW7,102 MW
24 Oct, 18:007,202 MW7,280 MW
24 Oct, 19:007,181 MW7,301 MW
24 Oct, 20:007,085 MW7,230 MW
24 Oct, 21:006,943 MW7,063 MW
24 Oct, 22:006,666 MW6,815 MW
24 Oct, 23:006,447 MW6,606 MW
25 Oct, 00:006,307 MW6,355 MW
25 Oct, 01:006,206 MW6,304 MW
25 Oct, 02:006,164 MW6,265 MW
25 Oct, 03:006,198 MW6,282 MW
25 Oct, 04:006,285 MW6,341 MW
25 Oct, 05:006,493 MW6,503 MW
25 Oct, 06:006,783 MW6,799 MW
25 Oct, 07:007,122 MW7,145 MW
25 Oct, 08:007,399 MW7,459 MW
25 Oct, 09:007,521 MW7,527 MW
25 Oct, 10:007,452 MW7,427 MW
25 Oct, 11:007,438 MW7,315 MW
25 Oct, 12:007,348 MW7,240 MW
25 Oct, 13:007,262 MW7,126 MW
25 Oct, 14:007,200 MW7,061 MW
25 Oct, 15:007,171 MW7,072 MW
25 Oct, 16:007,241 MW7,155 MW
25 Oct, 17:007,369 MW7,342 MW
25 Oct, 18:007,484 MW7,513 MW
25 Oct, 19:007,408 MW7,527 MW
25 Oct, 20:007,259 MW7,374 MW
25 Oct, 21:006,982 MW7,140 MW
25 Oct, 22:006,631 MW6,812 MW
25 Oct, 23:006,315 MW6,530 MW
26 Oct, 00:006,170 MW6,340 MW
26 Oct, 01:006,025 MW6,216 MW
26 Oct, 02:006,023 MW6,199 MW
26 Oct, 03:006,060 MW6,280 MW
26 Oct, 04:006,277 MW6,516 MW
26 Oct, 05:006,737 MW7,008 MW
26 Oct, 06:007,267 MW7,631 MW
26 Oct, 07:007,670 MW7,851 MW
26 Oct, 08:007,759 MW7,845 MW
26 Oct, 09:007,728 MW7,765 MW
26 Oct, 10:007,602 MW7,933 MW
26 Oct, 11:007,495 MW7,829 MW
26 Oct, 12:007,431 MW7,739 MW
26 Oct, 13:007,336 MW7,755 MW
26 Oct, 14:007,259 MW7,715 MW
26 Oct, 15:007,231 MW7,700 MW
26 Oct, 16:007,314 MW7,781 MW
26 Oct, 17:007,542 MW7,949 MW
26 Oct, 18:007,711 MW8,093 MW
26 Oct, 19:007,651 MW8,037 MW
26 Oct, 20:007,432 MW7,851 MW
26 Oct, 21:007,148 MW7,552 MW
26 Oct, 22:006,766 MW7,160 MW
26 Oct, 23:006,523 MW6,845 MW
27 Oct, 00:006,340 MW6,412 MW
27 Oct, 01:006,228 MW6,155 MW
27 Oct, 02:006,180 MW6,068 MW
27 Oct, 03:006,191 MW6,082 MW
27 Oct, 04:006,414 MW6,249 MW
27 Oct, 05:006,827 MW6,652 MW
27 Oct, 06:007,352 MW7,165 MW
27 Oct, 07:007,704 MW7,523 MW
27 Oct, 08:008,021 MW7,585 MW
27 Oct, 09:007,710 MW7,538 MW
27 Oct, 10:007,619 MW7,438 MW
27 Oct, 11:007,575 MW7,350 MW
27 Oct, 12:007,493 MW7,305 MW
27 Oct, 13:007,372 MW7,227 MW
27 Oct, 14:007,294 MW7,163 MW
27 Oct, 15:007,237 MW7,160 MW
27 Oct, 16:007,348 MW7,262 MW
27 Oct, 17:007,623 MW7,482 MW
27 Oct, 18:007,840 MW7,695 MW
27 Oct, 19:007,831 MW7,670 MW
27 Oct, 20:007,640 MW7,524 MW
27 Oct, 21:007,339 MW7,260 MW
27 Oct, 22:007,001 MW6,906 MW
27 Oct, 23:006,733 MW6,633 MW
28 Oct, 00:006,537 MW6,271 MW
28 Oct, 01:006,424 MW6,200 MW
28 Oct, 02:006,429 MW6,171 MW
28 Oct, 03:006,428 MW6,216 MW
28 Oct, 04:006,613 MW6,437 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bpa_2026,
  title = {{BPA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bpa/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.