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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,303 MW (11.6%) too high at 29 Sept 2026, 14:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPL was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,303 MW (11.6%) too high at 29 Sept 2026, 14:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPL came 18 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 540 MW, against average demand of 17,443 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.0%
Bias+0.3%
Hours within 5%80%
Worst miss2,303 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+31 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,303 MW (11.6%) too high at 29 Sept 2026, 14:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 22,181 MW, reported 19,878 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
FPL day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPL over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:0013,336 MW13,741 MW
21 Oct, 09:0015,349 MW14,680 MW
21 Oct, 10:0016,243 MW15,673 MW
21 Oct, 11:0016,873 MW16,634 MW
21 Oct, 12:0017,519 MW17,569 MW
21 Oct, 13:0018,511 MW18,299 MW
21 Oct, 14:0019,255 MW19,095 MW
21 Oct, 15:0019,841 MW19,718 MW
21 Oct, 16:0019,900 MW19,749 MW
21 Oct, 17:0019,314 MW19,363 MW
21 Oct, 18:0017,591 MW18,704 MW
21 Oct, 19:0017,318 MW18,512 MW
21 Oct, 20:0016,845 MW17,678 MW
21 Oct, 21:0015,664 MW16,581 MW
21 Oct, 22:0014,773 MW15,155 MW
21 Oct, 23:0013,807 MW13,828 MW
22 Oct, 00:0012,789 MW12,716 MW
22 Oct, 01:0012,033 MW11,927 MW
22 Oct, 02:0011,331 MW11,240 MW
22 Oct, 03:0011,037 MW11,022 MW
22 Oct, 04:0010,948 MW11,217 MW
22 Oct, 05:0011,563 MW11,865 MW
22 Oct, 06:0012,468 MW12,733 MW
22 Oct, 07:0012,867 MW13,012 MW
22 Oct, 08:0013,939 MW13,986 MW
22 Oct, 09:0015,461 MW14,991 MW
22 Oct, 10:0016,349 MW15,778 MW
22 Oct, 11:0016,931 MW16,416 MW
22 Oct, 12:0017,001 MW17,139 MW
22 Oct, 13:0017,128 MW17,799 MW
22 Oct, 14:0017,471 MW18,557 MW
22 Oct, 15:0017,774 MW18,971 MW
22 Oct, 16:0017,917 MW19,080 MW
22 Oct, 17:0017,616 MW18,574 MW
22 Oct, 18:0016,243 MW18,025 MW
22 Oct, 19:0016,102 MW17,923 MW
22 Oct, 20:0015,858 MW17,198 MW
22 Oct, 21:0015,356 MW16,168 MW
22 Oct, 22:0014,537 MW14,796 MW
22 Oct, 23:0013,311 MW13,419 MW
23 Oct, 00:0012,206 MW12,276 MW
23 Oct, 01:0011,294 MW11,455 MW
23 Oct, 02:0010,941 MW10,853 MW
23 Oct, 03:0010,899 MW10,604 MW
23 Oct, 04:0010,934 MW10,773 MW
23 Oct, 05:0010,943 MW11,520 MW
23 Oct, 06:0011,785 MW12,354 MW
23 Oct, 07:0011,870 MW12,612 MW
23 Oct, 08:0012,894 MW13,613 MW
23 Oct, 09:0015,249 MW14,596 MW
23 Oct, 10:0016,276 MW15,351 MW
23 Oct, 11:0016,670 MW15,962 MW
23 Oct, 12:0016,839 MW16,764 MW
23 Oct, 13:0017,301 MW17,443 MW
23 Oct, 14:0017,553 MW17,936 MW
23 Oct, 15:0017,867 MW18,280 MW
23 Oct, 16:0018,037 MW18,504 MW
23 Oct, 17:0017,412 MW17,992 MW
23 Oct, 18:0015,938 MW17,388 MW
23 Oct, 19:0015,895 MW17,087 MW
23 Oct, 20:0015,532 MW16,418 MW
23 Oct, 21:0014,351 MW15,680 MW
23 Oct, 22:0013,911 MW14,676 MW
23 Oct, 23:0013,218 MW13,641 MW
24 Oct, 00:0012,543 MW12,330 MW
24 Oct, 01:0011,668 MW11,705 MW
24 Oct, 02:0011,008 MW10,936 MW
24 Oct, 03:0010,757 MW10,648 MW
24 Oct, 04:0010,778 MW10,652 MW
24 Oct, 05:0010,778 MW10,891 MW
24 Oct, 06:0010,934 MW11,362 MW
24 Oct, 07:0011,318 MW11,688 MW
24 Oct, 08:0012,458 MW12,941 MW
24 Oct, 09:0014,746 MW14,464 MW
24 Oct, 10:0015,730 MW15,604 MW
24 Oct, 11:0016,812 MW16,485 MW
24 Oct, 12:0017,043 MW17,211 MW
24 Oct, 13:0017,580 MW17,657 MW
24 Oct, 14:0018,050 MW18,261 MW
24 Oct, 15:0018,314 MW18,419 MW
24 Oct, 16:0018,222 MW18,459 MW
24 Oct, 17:0017,759 MW17,907 MW
24 Oct, 18:0016,899 MW17,197 MW
24 Oct, 19:0016,673 MW16,901 MW
24 Oct, 20:0015,642 MW16,252 MW
24 Oct, 21:0014,787 MW15,452 MW
24 Oct, 22:0013,966 MW14,499 MW
24 Oct, 23:0013,296 MW13,375 MW
25 Oct, 00:0012,535 MW12,309 MW
25 Oct, 01:0011,690 MW11,402 MW
25 Oct, 02:0011,161 MW11,074 MW
25 Oct, 03:0010,779 MW10,765 MW
25 Oct, 04:0010,609 MW10,775 MW
25 Oct, 05:0010,650 MW10,913 MW
25 Oct, 06:0011,076 MW11,363 MW
25 Oct, 07:0011,532 MW11,784 MW
25 Oct, 08:0012,737 MW13,273 MW
25 Oct, 09:0014,398 MW14,881 MW
25 Oct, 10:0015,662 MW15,841 MW
25 Oct, 11:0016,553 MW16,571 MW
25 Oct, 12:0017,265 MW17,276 MW
25 Oct, 13:0017,647 MW17,709 MW
25 Oct, 14:0018,264 MW17,967 MW
25 Oct, 15:0018,919 MW18,103 MW
25 Oct, 16:0018,490 MW18,396 MW
25 Oct, 17:0018,018 MW17,961 MW
25 Oct, 18:0016,995 MW17,338 MW
25 Oct, 19:0016,915 MW17,240 MW
25 Oct, 20:0017,042 MW16,742 MW
25 Oct, 21:0016,319 MW15,870 MW
25 Oct, 22:0015,146 MW14,745 MW
25 Oct, 23:0013,809 MW13,471 MW
26 Oct, 00:0012,682 MW12,351 MW
26 Oct, 01:0011,870 MW11,659 MW
26 Oct, 02:0011,388 MW11,382 MW
26 Oct, 03:0011,163 MW11,239 MW
26 Oct, 04:0011,311 MW11,406 MW
26 Oct, 05:0011,935 MW12,269 MW
26 Oct, 06:0013,032 MW13,394 MW
26 Oct, 07:0013,716 MW14,123 MW
26 Oct, 08:0014,751 MW14,870 MW
26 Oct, 09:0016,025 MW15,972 MW
26 Oct, 10:0017,087 MW16,802 MW
26 Oct, 11:0017,821 MW17,339 MW
26 Oct, 12:0018,561 MW18,112 MW
26 Oct, 13:0019,496 MW18,772 MW
26 Oct, 14:0019,846 MW19,125 MW
26 Oct, 15:0019,897 MW19,327 MW
26 Oct, 16:0019,595 MW19,376 MW
26 Oct, 17:0019,223 MW18,884 MW
26 Oct, 18:0018,042 MW18,564 MW
26 Oct, 19:0018,041 MW18,458 MW
26 Oct, 20:0017,537 MW17,768 MW
26 Oct, 21:0016,682 MW16,788 MW
26 Oct, 22:0015,711 MW15,505 MW
26 Oct, 23:0014,208 MW14,150 MW
27 Oct, 00:0012,862 MW13,229 MW
27 Oct, 01:0012,479 MW12,423 MW
27 Oct, 02:0011,704 MW11,842 MW
27 Oct, 03:0011,444 MW11,459 MW
27 Oct, 04:0011,376 MW11,709 MW
27 Oct, 05:0011,824 MW12,533 MW
27 Oct, 06:0012,976 MW13,573 MW
27 Oct, 07:0013,591 MW13,820 MW
27 Oct, 08:0014,478 MW14,953 MW
27 Oct, 09:0015,902 MW15,918 MW
27 Oct, 10:0017,413 MW16,844 MW
27 Oct, 11:0018,393 MW17,433 MW
27 Oct, 12:0018,684 MW18,057 MW
27 Oct, 13:0018,990 MW18,746 MW
27 Oct, 14:0019,313 MW18,976 MW
27 Oct, 15:0019,204 MW19,244 MW
27 Oct, 16:0018,972 MW19,444 MW
27 Oct, 17:0018,309 MW19,099 MW
27 Oct, 18:0017,525 MW18,811 MW
27 Oct, 19:0017,453 MW18,690 MW
27 Oct, 20:0017,223 MW17,999 MW
27 Oct, 21:0016,611 MW17,066 MW
27 Oct, 22:0015,822 MW15,791 MW
27 Oct, 23:0014,464 MW14,496 MW
28 Oct, 00:0013,742 MW13,150 MW
28 Oct, 01:0012,969 MW12,371 MW
28 Oct, 02:0012,408 MW12,301 MW
28 Oct, 03:0012,024 MW12,171 MW
28 Oct, 04:0011,980 MW12,285 MW
28 Oct, 05:0012,500 MW13,140 MW
28 Oct, 06:0013,433 MW14,113 MW
28 Oct, 07:0014,005 MW14,266 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpl_2026,
  title = {{FPL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpl/}
}

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