TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 716 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for TIDC was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 716 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.3%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TIDC came 14 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 10 MW, against average demand of 342 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 46% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

716 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026

Average error2.8%

Bias+0.3%

Hours within 5%86%

Worst miss54 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 54 MW (15.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 415 MW, reported 361 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for TIDC over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:00	283 MW	277 MW
21 Oct, 06:00	304 MW	301 MW
21 Oct, 07:00	320 MW	314 MW
21 Oct, 08:00	323 MW	312 MW
21 Oct, 09:00	325 MW	306 MW
21 Oct, 10:00	329 MW	297 MW
21 Oct, 11:00	329 MW	294 MW
21 Oct, 12:00	334 MW	292 MW
21 Oct, 13:00	342 MW	300 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	335 MW	310 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	332 MW	317 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	321 MW	326 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	319 MW	333 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	334 MW	343 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	336 MW	341 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	331 MW	329 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	321 MW	318 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	304 MW	303 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	290 MW	287 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	277 MW	277 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	253 MW	267 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	247 MW	261 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	249 MW	259 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	253 MW	264 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	269 MW	278 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	292 MW	303 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	309 MW	315 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	304 MW	311 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	301 MW	302 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	297 MW	292 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	297 MW	287 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	307 MW	288 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	305 MW	297 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	311 MW	310 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	319 MW	319 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	320 MW	328 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	318 MW	333 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	329 MW	339 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	329 MW	342 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	326 MW	334 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	317 MW	322 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	301 MW	305 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	288 MW	288 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	277 MW	274 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	267 MW	263 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	262 MW	257 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	258 MW	255 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	261 MW	260 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	272 MW	271 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	296 MW	292 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	314 MW	305 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	316 MW	303 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	317 MW	299 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	314 MW	296 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	314 MW	293 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	312 MW	295 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	300 MW	300 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	292 MW	308 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	290 MW	311 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	297 MW	321 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	310 MW	328 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	320 MW	332 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	319 MW	330 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	310 MW	319 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	303 MW	309 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	292 MW	296 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	276 MW	280 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	264 MW	270 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	254 MW	258 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	246 MW	251 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	239 MW	247 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	240 MW	248 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	246 MW	251 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	255 MW	259 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	259 MW	265 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	254 MW	264 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	247 MW	264 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	241 MW	261 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	234 MW	259 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	232 MW	260 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	236 MW	265 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	244 MW	273 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	256 MW	282 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	274 MW	292 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	290 MW	298 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	301 MW	305 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	300 MW	302 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	294 MW	295 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	288 MW	286 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	276 MW	274 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	262 MW	261 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	251 MW	252 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	243 MW	242 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	237 MW	235 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	233 MW	232 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	232 MW	230 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	233 MW	231 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	239 MW	237 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	241 MW	240 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	238 MW	240 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	231 MW	240 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	225 MW	237 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	224 MW	232 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	226 MW	238 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	233 MW	249 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	250 MW	256 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	265 MW	270 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	284 MW	287 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	297 MW	299 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	309 MW	303 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	312 MW	308 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	306 MW	301 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	294 MW	291 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	281 MW	277 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	266 MW	261 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	253 MW	252 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	245 MW	243 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	239 MW	238 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	239 MW	237 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	244 MW	243 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	260 MW	257 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	290 MW	285 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	308 MW	303 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	303 MW	307 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	295 MW	307 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	286 MW	302 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	280 MW	299 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	282 MW	302 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	285 MW	310 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	294 MW	315 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	303 MW	329 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	314 MW	339 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	329 MW	344 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	340 MW	348 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	340 MW	346 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	332 MW	333 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	320 MW	319 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	302 MW	301 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	287 MW	284 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	273 MW	275 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	261 MW	265 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	254 MW	259 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	254 MW	257 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	259 MW	263 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	273 MW	277 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	299 MW	302 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	315 MW	318 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	308 MW	315 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	292 MW	307 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	284 MW	300 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	277 MW	295 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	279 MW	298 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	283 MW	304 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	290 MW	310 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	300 MW	317 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	310 MW	327 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	319 MW	335 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	332 MW	343 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	335 MW	343 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	328 MW	333 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	n/a	322 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	n/a	305 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	n/a	289 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	275 MW	276 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	265 MW	266 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	259 MW	260 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	258 MW	259 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	264 MW	265 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (716 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tidc_2026,
  title = {{TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tidc/

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TIDC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related