TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 111 MW (21.7%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for TAL was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.8%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 111 MW (21.7%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
- Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, TAL came 25 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 12 MW, against average demand of 317 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 29% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026Average error3.5%
Bias-1.8%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss111 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 111 MW (21.7%) too low at 2 Oct 2026, 13:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 400 MW, reported 511 MW.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 08:00 | 281 MW | 273 MW |
| 21 Oct, 09:00 | 284 MW | 280 MW |
| 21 Oct, 10:00 | 272 MW | 282 MW |
| 21 Oct, 11:00 | 291 MW | 286 MW |
| 21 Oct, 12:00 | 300 MW | 293 MW |
| 21 Oct, 13:00 | 302 MW | 301 MW |
| 21 Oct, 14:00 | 320 MW | 310 MW |
| 21 Oct, 15:00 | 324 MW | 325 MW |
| 21 Oct, 16:00 | 328 MW | 334 MW |
| 21 Oct, 17:00 | 330 MW | 332 MW |
| 21 Oct, 18:00 | 322 MW | 327 MW |
| 21 Oct, 19:00 | 325 MW | 321 MW |
| 21 Oct, 20:00 | 310 MW | 309 MW |
| 21 Oct, 21:00 | 302 MW | 291 MW |
| 21 Oct, 22:00 | 269 MW | 268 MW |
| 21 Oct, 23:00 | 256 MW | 248 MW |
| 22 Oct, 00:00 | 233 MW | 219 MW |
| 22 Oct, 01:00 | 210 MW | 205 MW |
| 22 Oct, 02:00 | 210 MW | 198 MW |
| 22 Oct, 03:00 | 200 MW | 195 MW |
| 22 Oct, 04:00 | 201 MW | 204 MW |
| 22 Oct, 05:00 | 212 MW | 215 MW |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 | 239 MW | 234 MW |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 | 262 MW | 253 MW |
| 22 Oct, 08:00 | 281 MW | 268 MW |
| 22 Oct, 09:00 | 281 MW | 274 MW |
| 22 Oct, 10:00 | 277 MW | 275 MW |
| 22 Oct, 11:00 | 280 MW | 281 MW |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 | 299 MW | 288 MW |
| 22 Oct, 13:00 | 308 MW | 295 MW |
| 22 Oct, 14:00 | 321 MW | 306 MW |
| 22 Oct, 15:00 | 325 MW | 320 MW |
| 22 Oct, 16:00 | 328 MW | 332 MW |
| 22 Oct, 17:00 | 333 MW | 334 MW |
| 22 Oct, 18:00 | 326 MW | 331 MW |
| 22 Oct, 19:00 | 319 MW | 325 MW |
| 22 Oct, 20:00 | 314 MW | 312 MW |
| 22 Oct, 21:00 | 291 MW | 293 MW |
| 22 Oct, 22:00 | 267 MW | 269 MW |
| 22 Oct, 23:00 | 244 MW | 246 MW |
| 23 Oct, 00:00 | 234 MW | 221 MW |
| 23 Oct, 01:00 | 217 MW | 209 MW |
| 23 Oct, 02:00 | 208 MW | 202 MW |
| 23 Oct, 03:00 | 202 MW | 198 MW |
| 23 Oct, 04:00 | 202 MW | 205 MW |
| 23 Oct, 05:00 | 211 MW | 215 MW |
| 23 Oct, 06:00 | 244 MW | 234 MW |
| 23 Oct, 07:00 | 269 MW | 254 MW |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 | 282 MW | 270 MW |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 | 283 MW | 279 MW |
| 23 Oct, 10:00 | 291 MW | 282 MW |
| 23 Oct, 11:00 | 295 MW | 286 MW |
| 23 Oct, 12:00 | 306 MW | 288 MW |
| 23 Oct, 13:00 | 312 MW | 292 MW |
| 23 Oct, 14:00 | 317 MW | 298 MW |
| 23 Oct, 15:00 | 328 MW | 307 MW |
| 23 Oct, 16:00 | 325 MW | 311 MW |
| 23 Oct, 17:00 | 329 MW | 313 MW |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 | 321 MW | 310 MW |
| 23 Oct, 19:00 | 303 MW | 300 MW |
| 23 Oct, 20:00 | 299 MW | 287 MW |
| 23 Oct, 21:00 | 281 MW | 272 MW |
| 23 Oct, 22:00 | 271 MW | 254 MW |
| 23 Oct, 23:00 | 250 MW | 237 MW |
| 24 Oct, 00:00 | 232 MW | 220 MW |
| 24 Oct, 01:00 | 224 MW | 208 MW |
| 24 Oct, 02:00 | 207 MW | 201 MW |
| 24 Oct, 03:00 | 200 MW | 198 MW |
| 24 Oct, 04:00 | 199 MW | 197 MW |
| 24 Oct, 05:00 | 204 MW | 210 MW |
| 24 Oct, 06:00 | 214 MW | 221 MW |
| 24 Oct, 07:00 | 227 MW | 233 MW |
| 24 Oct, 08:00 | 239 MW | 243 MW |
| 24 Oct, 09:00 | 250 MW | 254 MW |
| 24 Oct, 10:00 | 257 MW | 261 MW |
| 24 Oct, 11:00 | 264 MW | 265 MW |
| 24 Oct, 12:00 | 269 MW | 270 MW |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 | 273 MW | 278 MW |
| 24 Oct, 14:00 | 280 MW | 287 MW |
| 24 Oct, 15:00 | 288 MW | 295 MW |
| 24 Oct, 16:00 | 295 MW | 300 MW |
| 24 Oct, 17:00 | 296 MW | 300 MW |
| 24 Oct, 18:00 | 290 MW | 299 MW |
| 24 Oct, 19:00 | 291 MW | 303 MW |
| 24 Oct, 20:00 | 283 MW | 296 MW |
| 24 Oct, 21:00 | 271 MW | 280 MW |
| 24 Oct, 22:00 | 257 MW | 267 MW |
| 24 Oct, 23:00 | 242 MW | 251 MW |
| 25 Oct, 00:00 | 226 MW | 224 MW |
| 25 Oct, 01:00 | 213 MW | 211 MW |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 | 206 MW | 204 MW |
| 25 Oct, 03:00 | 201 MW | 199 MW |
| 25 Oct, 04:00 | 198 MW | 196 MW |
| 25 Oct, 05:00 | 198 MW | 206 MW |
| 25 Oct, 06:00 | 204 MW | 214 MW |
| 25 Oct, 07:00 | 214 MW | 220 MW |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 | 226 MW | 228 MW |
| 25 Oct, 09:00 | 242 MW | 241 MW |
| 25 Oct, 10:00 | 256 MW | 254 MW |
| 25 Oct, 11:00 | 269 MW | 265 MW |
| 25 Oct, 12:00 | 284 MW | 273 MW |
| 25 Oct, 13:00 | 296 MW | 282 MW |
| 25 Oct, 14:00 | 307 MW | 291 MW |
| 25 Oct, 15:00 | 317 MW | 300 MW |
| 25 Oct, 16:00 | 325 MW | 306 MW |
| 25 Oct, 17:00 | 327 MW | 307 MW |
| 25 Oct, 18:00 | 322 MW | 307 MW |
| 25 Oct, 19:00 | 325 MW | 319 MW |
| 25 Oct, 20:00 | 317 MW | 321 MW |
| 25 Oct, 21:00 | 301 MW | 304 MW |
| 25 Oct, 22:00 | 280 MW | 285 MW |
| 25 Oct, 23:00 | 257 MW | 262 MW |
| 26 Oct, 00:00 | 236 MW | 234 MW |
| 26 Oct, 01:00 | 219 MW | 217 MW |
| 26 Oct, 02:00 | 208 MW | 206 MW |
| 26 Oct, 03:00 | 202 MW | 201 MW |
| 26 Oct, 04:00 | 203 MW | 208 MW |
| 26 Oct, 05:00 | 212 MW | 219 MW |
| 26 Oct, 06:00 | 235 MW | 234 MW |
| 26 Oct, 07:00 | 256 MW | 250 MW |
| 26 Oct, 08:00 | 260 MW | 268 MW |
| 26 Oct, 09:00 | 268 MW | 278 MW |
| 26 Oct, 10:00 | 278 MW | 286 MW |
| 26 Oct, 11:00 | 289 MW | 298 MW |
| 26 Oct, 12:00 | 301 MW | 309 MW |
| 26 Oct, 13:00 | 314 MW | 322 MW |
| 26 Oct, 14:00 | 325 MW | 335 MW |
| 26 Oct, 15:00 | 339 MW | 346 MW |
| 26 Oct, 16:00 | 343 MW | 350 MW |
| 26 Oct, 17:00 | 345 MW | 345 MW |
| 26 Oct, 18:00 | 359 MW | 339 MW |
| 26 Oct, 19:00 | 366 MW | 332 MW |
| 26 Oct, 20:00 | 338 MW | 320 MW |
| 26 Oct, 21:00 | 316 MW | 305 MW |
| 26 Oct, 22:00 | 289 MW | 281 MW |
| 26 Oct, 23:00 | 266 MW | 254 MW |
| 27 Oct, 00:00 | 233 MW | 228 MW |
| 27 Oct, 01:00 | 216 MW | 212 MW |
| 27 Oct, 02:00 | 207 MW | 202 MW |
| 27 Oct, 03:00 | 201 MW | 197 MW |
| 27 Oct, 04:00 | 200 MW | 205 MW |
| 27 Oct, 05:00 | 210 MW | 217 MW |
| 27 Oct, 06:00 | 245 MW | 233 MW |
| 27 Oct, 07:00 | 281 MW | 251 MW |
| 27 Oct, 08:00 | 274 MW | 267 MW |
| 27 Oct, 09:00 | 283 MW | 275 MW |
| 27 Oct, 10:00 | 292 MW | 284 MW |
| 27 Oct, 11:00 | 304 MW | 297 MW |
| 27 Oct, 12:00 | 314 MW | 310 MW |
| 27 Oct, 13:00 | 334 MW | 329 MW |
| 27 Oct, 14:00 | 344 MW | 345 MW |
| 27 Oct, 15:00 | 360 MW | 353 MW |
| 27 Oct, 16:00 | 363 MW | 356 MW |
| 27 Oct, 17:00 | 360 MW | 355 MW |
| 27 Oct, 18:00 | 356 MW | 350 MW |
| 27 Oct, 19:00 | 358 MW | 343 MW |
| 27 Oct, 20:00 | 345 MW | 332 MW |
| 27 Oct, 21:00 | 320 MW | 314 MW |
| 27 Oct, 22:00 | 298 MW | 288 MW |
| 27 Oct, 23:00 | 285 MW | 259 MW |
| 28 Oct, 00:00 | 265 MW | 235 MW |
| 28 Oct, 01:00 | 248 MW | 219 MW |
| 28 Oct, 02:00 | 216 MW | 208 MW |
| 28 Oct, 03:00 | 205 MW | 202 MW |
| 28 Oct, 04:00 | 204 MW | 208 MW |
| 28 Oct, 05:00 | 213 MW | 217 MW |
| 28 Oct, 06:00 | 242 MW | 234 MW |
| 28 Oct, 07:00 | 273 MW | 252 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_tal_2026,
title = {{TAL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/tal/
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