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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 16.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 24% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +14.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 16.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 24% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +14.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North-Central (SE2) came 45 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 230 MW, against average demand of 1,573 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 83% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error16.6%
Bias+14.8%
Hours within 5%24%
Worst miss1,066 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+197 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,061 MW, reported 995 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North-Central (SE2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:001,797 MW1,949 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,764 MW1,964 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,662 MW1,993 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,873 MW2,010 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,985 MW2,012 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,952 MW1,997 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,901 MW1,966 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,040 MW1,908 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,818 MW1,847 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,757 MW1,762 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,629 MW1,681 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,665 MW1,646 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,851 MW1,621 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,725 MW1,608 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,520 MW1,612 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,346 MW1,671 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,390 MW1,777 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,585 MW1,888 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,565 MW1,908 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,735 MW1,904 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,769 MW1,895 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,637 MW1,884 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,848 MW1,871 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,763 MW1,857 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,711 MW1,860 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,663 MW1,886 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,604 MW1,915 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,596 MW1,932 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,517 MW1,926 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,441 MW1,917 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,440 MW1,895 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,640 MW1,847 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,607 MW1,784 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,783 MW1,711 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,801 MW1,658 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,765 MW1,633 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,617 MW1,614 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,670 MW1,605 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,442 MW1,622 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,592 MW1,649 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,432 MW1,779 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,379 MW1,888 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,707 MW1,937 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,859 MW1,945 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,862 MW1,937 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,686 MW1,933 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,926 MW1,919 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,864 MW1,907 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,732 MW1,914 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,745 MW1,927 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,845 MW1,950 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,843 MW1,974 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,979 MW1,954 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,789 MW1,936 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,572 MW1,904 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,457 MW1,851 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,431 MW1,796 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,159 MW1,722 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,229 MW1,683 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,359 MW1,664 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,393 MW1,640 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,352 MW1,643 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,229 MW1,650 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,049 MW1,660 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,006 MW1,676 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,119 MW1,713 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,326 MW1,791 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,394 MW1,823 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,449 MW1,823 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,446 MW1,802 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,257 MW1,779 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,126 MW1,741 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,136 MW1,750 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,120 MW1,782 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,341 MW1,840 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,447 MW1,882 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,663 MW1,895 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,775 MW1,876 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,540 MW1,841 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,374 MW1,785 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,383 MW1,741 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,460 MW1,687 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,216 MW1,625 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,388 MW1,607 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,523 MW1,588 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,559 MW1,577 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,518 MW1,583 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,436 MW1,598 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,440 MW1,642 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,546 MW1,650 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,637 MW1,648 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,725 MW1,677 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,748 MW1,707 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,776 MW1,719 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,924 MW1,719 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,820 MW1,738 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,813 MW1,736 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,642 MW1,755 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,661 MW1,802 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,672 MW1,852 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,552 MW1,879 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,866 MW1,869 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,739 MW1,868 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,826 MW1,850 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,785 MW1,794 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,789 MW1,752 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,839 MW1,698 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,598 MW1,619 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,630 MW1,604 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,515 MW1,584 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,440 MW1,586 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,519 MW1,620 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,470 MW1,721 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,852 MW1,830 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,516 MW1,870 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,537 MW1,872 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,537 MW1,859 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,649 MW1,867 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,721 MW1,860 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,757 MW1,845 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,383 MW1,851 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,515 MW1,855 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,795 MW1,880 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,905 MW1,900 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,743 MW1,916 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,715 MW1,905 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,640 MW1,885 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,499 MW1,854 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,597 MW1,800 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,474 MW1,721 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,507 MW1,663 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,476 MW1,621 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,387 MW1,591 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,402 MW1,583 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,634 MW1,596 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,585 MW1,640 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,407 MW1,757 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,672 MW1,867 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,265 MW1,911 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,216 MW1,915 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,386 MW1,896 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,615 MW1,884 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,206 MW1,866 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,116 MW1,845 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,252 MW1,839 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,491 MW1,846 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,439 MW1,881 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,542 MW1,899 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,350 MW1,904 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,479 MW1,882 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,466 MW1,851 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,706 MW1,818 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,738 MW1,757 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,566 MW1,670 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,372 MW1,597 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,412 MW1,564 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,338 MW1,550 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,390 MW1,552 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,350 MW1,549 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,327 MW1,591 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,316 MW1,685 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,378 MW1,783 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,478 MW1,832 MW
28 Oct, 08:001,504 MW1,843 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,485 MW1,838 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,363 MW1,839 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,275 MW1,833 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,347 MW1,820 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se2_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

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