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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 563 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Tbilisi).

This grid has 563 compared hours out of the 688 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 563 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Georgia came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 40 MW, against average demand of 1,545 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

563 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss440 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-4 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00): forecast 1,240 MW, reported 1,680 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00)
Georgia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 16:0022 Oct, 16:0023 Oct, 16:0024 Oct, 16:0025 Oct, 16:0026 Oct, 16:0027 Oct, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 16:001,712 MW1,690 MW
21 Oct, 17:00n/a1,760 MW
21 Oct, 18:00n/a1,895 MW
21 Oct, 19:00n/a1,915 MW
21 Oct, 20:00n/a1,885 MW
21 Oct, 21:00n/a1,830 MW
21 Oct, 22:00n/a1,740 MW
21 Oct, 23:00n/a1,600 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,505 MW1,505 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,414 MW1,390 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,357 MW1,305 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,267 MW1,290 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,306 MW1,265 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,301 MW1,280 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,307 MW1,310 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,364 MW1,370 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,496 MW1,510 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,632 MW1,660 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,721 MW1,740 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,722 MW1,765 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,717 MW1,760 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,687 MW1,710 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,725 MW1,735 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,760 MW1,745 MW
22 Oct, 16:00n/a1,760 MW
22 Oct, 17:00n/a1,780 MW
22 Oct, 18:00n/a1,900 MW
22 Oct, 19:00n/a1,920 MW
22 Oct, 20:00n/a1,900 MW
22 Oct, 21:00n/a1,870 MW
22 Oct, 22:00n/a1,765 MW
22 Oct, 23:00n/a1,645 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,416 MW1,515 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,368 MW1,435 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,309 MW1,350 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,277 MW1,325 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,259 MW1,295 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,260 MW1,310 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,295 MW1,315 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,341 MW1,360 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,493 MW1,495 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,591 MW1,630 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,621 MW1,715 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,611 MW1,735 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,615 MW1,700 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,579 MW1,655 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,641 MW1,625 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,664 MW1,645 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,701 MW1,680 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,756 MW1,715 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,863 MW1,825 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,885 MW1,865 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,839 MW1,835 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,792 MW1,780 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,715 MW1,695 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,608 MW1,605 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,504 MW1,485 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,402 MW1,390 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,348 MW1,335 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,324 MW1,315 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,284 MW1,290 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,293 MW1,285 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,330 MW1,290 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,341 MW1,320 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,437 MW1,440 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,573 MW1,560 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,638 MW1,610 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,658 MW1,615 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,631 MW1,605 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,597 MW1,570 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,598 MW1,590 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,621 MW1,610 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,657 MW1,630 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,699 MW1,660 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,834 MW1,760 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,874 MW1,800 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,832 MW1,790 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,796 MW1,750 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,710 MW1,660 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,621 MW1,540 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,524 MW1,470 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,428 MW1,375 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,351 MW1,340 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,326 MW1,310 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,305 MW1,290 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,308 MW1,285 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,307 MW1,280 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,341 MW1,305 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,405 MW1,380 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,498 MW1,500 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,594 MW1,560 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,622 MW1,570 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,650 MW1,560 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,659 MW1,545 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,666 MW1,565 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,688 MW1,580 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,692 MW1,600 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,722 MW1,630 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,834 MW1,740 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,858 MW1,780 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,859 MW1,770 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,803 MW1,730 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,721 MW1,650 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,612 MW1,530 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,489 MW1,430 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,410 MW1,350 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,347 MW1,320 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,305 MW1,290 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,291 MW1,260 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,293 MW1,270 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,313 MW1,295 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,390 MW1,360 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,526 MW1,490 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,659 MW1,600 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,726 MW1,660 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,737 MW1,695 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,709 MW1,680 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,674 MW1,660 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,703 MW1,670 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,727 MW1,680 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,733 MW1,710 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,759 MW1,740 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,854 MW1,835 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,897 MW1,890 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,859 MW1,865 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,822 MW1,820 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,737 MW1,735 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,619 MW1,645 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,496 MW1,500 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,384 MW1,420 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,322 MW1,360 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,284 MW1,315 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,263 MW1,310 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,274 MW1,310 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,318 MW1,325 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,385 MW1,400 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,526 MW1,530 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,660 MW1,670 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,736 MW1,725 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,705 MW1,740 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,674 MW1,725 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,625 MW1,680 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,645 MW1,690 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,677 MW1,710 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,716 MW1,720 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,770 MW1,755 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,862 MW1,860 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,888 MW1,915 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,853 MW1,895 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,825 MW1,835 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,753 MW1,755 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,639 MW1,645 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,518 MW1,510 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,411 MW1,395 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,349 MW1,335 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,324 MW1,295 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,305 MW1,275 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,307 MW1,285 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,334 MW1,330 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,402 MW1,395 MW
28 Oct, 08:001,549 MW1,540 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,703 MW1,680 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,771 MW1,735 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,788 MW1,725 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,768 MW1,695 MW
28 Oct, 13:001,739 MW1,660 MW
28 Oct, 14:001,771 MW1,690 MW
28 Oct, 15:001,788 MW1,715 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (563 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ge_2026,
  title = {{Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/}
}

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