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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SCL was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 79% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SCL came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 34 MW, against average demand of 1,002 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 17% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias-2.9%
Hours within 5%79%
Worst miss154 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-29 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 154 MW (13.8%) too low at 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 960 MW, reported 1,114 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
SCL day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SCL over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 375 750 1,125 1,500 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SCL over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:00954 MW918 MW
21 Oct, 06:001,101 MW1,051 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,213 MW1,145 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,203 MW1,159 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,183 MW1,138 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,192 MW1,110 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,138 MW1,078 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,109 MW1,060 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,091 MW1,050 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,071 MW1,041 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,087 MW1,045 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,109 MW1,070 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,135 MW1,092 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,158 MW1,103 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,146 MW1,095 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,116 MW1,067 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,075 MW1,026 MW
21 Oct, 22:00996 MW958 MW
21 Oct, 23:00940 MW890 MW
22 Oct, 00:00889 MW854 MW
22 Oct, 01:00856 MW816 MW
22 Oct, 02:00837 MW795 MW
22 Oct, 03:00837 MW794 MW
22 Oct, 04:00861 MW822 MW
22 Oct, 05:00944 MW903 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,093 MW1,034 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,157 MW1,145 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,160 MW1,159 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,135 MW1,145 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,111 MW1,127 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,085 MW1,114 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,066 MW1,095 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,055 MW1,079 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,047 MW1,068 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,057 MW1,067 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,079 MW1,085 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,112 MW1,107 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,133 MW1,125 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,121 MW1,114 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,092 MW1,090 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,046 MW1,048 MW
22 Oct, 22:00975 MW975 MW
22 Oct, 23:00911 MW905 MW
23 Oct, 00:00860 MW867 MW
23 Oct, 01:00833 MW838 MW
23 Oct, 02:00810 MW817 MW
23 Oct, 03:00810 MW815 MW
23 Oct, 04:00830 MW840 MW
23 Oct, 05:00927 MW919 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,059 MW1,040 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,170 MW1,132 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,205 MW1,161 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,203 MW1,162 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,199 MW1,151 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,172 MW1,135 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,140 MW1,117 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,116 MW1,095 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,090 MW1,075 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,092 MW1,068 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,103 MW1,080 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,142 MW1,096 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,144 MW1,109 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,141 MW1,101 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,104 MW1,083 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,084 MW1,048 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,040 MW999 MW
23 Oct, 23:00980 MW951 MW
24 Oct, 00:00953 MW910 MW
24 Oct, 01:00915 MW872 MW
24 Oct, 02:00888 MW850 MW
24 Oct, 03:00882 MW842 MW
24 Oct, 04:00888 MW852 MW
24 Oct, 05:00924 MW886 MW
24 Oct, 06:00998 MW943 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,051 MW1,007 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,101 MW1,055 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,125 MW1,063 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,123 MW1,051 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,147 MW1,034 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,140 MW1,012 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,115 MW982 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,089 MW967 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,114 MW960 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,108 MW977 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,141 MW1,000 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,159 MW1,033 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,137 MW1,040 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,112 MW1,026 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,085 MW1,001 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,036 MW961 MW
24 Oct, 23:00962 MW918 MW
25 Oct, 00:00912 MW904 MW
25 Oct, 01:00877 MW865 MW
25 Oct, 02:00863 MW841 MW
25 Oct, 03:00843 MW833 MW
25 Oct, 04:00853 MW841 MW
25 Oct, 05:00876 MW869 MW
25 Oct, 06:00935 MW916 MW
25 Oct, 07:00988 MW967 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,045 MW1,017 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,099 MW1,060 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,121 MW1,076 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,103 MW1,083 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,078 MW1,082 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,087 MW1,066 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,113 MW1,060 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,099 MW1,058 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,101 MW1,072 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,142 MW1,116 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,184 MW1,161 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,182 MW1,162 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,153 MW1,140 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,111 MW1,096 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,033 MW1,024 MW
25 Oct, 23:00956 MW953 MW
26 Oct, 00:00887 MW877 MW
26 Oct, 01:00861 MW844 MW
26 Oct, 02:00852 MW826 MW
26 Oct, 03:00847 MW828 MW
26 Oct, 04:00877 MW857 MW
26 Oct, 05:00959 MW942 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,088 MW1,072 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,180 MW1,164 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,216 MW1,192 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,215 MW1,198 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,208 MW1,191 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,182 MW1,181 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,175 MW1,170 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,103 MW1,150 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,125 MW1,134 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,112 MW1,130 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,122 MW1,139 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,182 MW1,174 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,204 MW1,198 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,201 MW1,186 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,159 MW1,154 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,104 MW1,100 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,021 MW1,022 MW
26 Oct, 23:00931 MW947 MW
27 Oct, 00:00881 MW871 MW
27 Oct, 01:00861 MW836 MW
27 Oct, 02:00843 MW815 MW
27 Oct, 03:00831 MW814 MW
27 Oct, 04:00866 MW840 MW
27 Oct, 05:00931 MW918 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,015 MW1,047 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,112 MW1,144 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,135 MW1,168 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,144 MW1,165 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,147 MW1,149 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,141 MW1,141 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,135 MW1,132 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,109 MW1,111 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,081 MW1,092 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,077 MW1,082 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,095 MW1,102 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,173 MW1,138 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,186 MW1,169 MW
27 Oct, 19:001,181 MW1,164 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,188 MW1,136 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,095 MW1,090 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,028 MW1,017 MW
27 Oct, 23:00992 MW939 MW
28 Oct, 00:00951 MW910 MW
28 Oct, 01:00919 MW872 MW
28 Oct, 02:00888 MW850 MW
28 Oct, 03:00878 MW847 MW
28 Oct, 04:00835 MW869 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_scl_2026,
  title = {{SCL Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/scl/

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