BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 7% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 198 MW (20.8%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for BHBA was off by 10.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 7% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -10.0%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 198 MW (20.8%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, BHBA came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 90 MW, against average demand of 893 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026

Average error10.0%

Bias-10.0%

Hours within 5%7%

Worst miss198 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-90 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 198 MW (20.8%) too low at 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 755 MW, reported 953 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for BHBA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 05:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 06:00	914 MW	791 MW
21 Oct, 07:00	933 MW	821 MW
21 Oct, 08:00	941 MW	836 MW
21 Oct, 09:00	928 MW	837 MW
21 Oct, 10:00	926 MW	854 MW
21 Oct, 11:00	924 MW	858 MW
21 Oct, 12:00	923 MW	856 MW
21 Oct, 13:00	918 MW	859 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	924 MW	861 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	939 MW	855 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	937 MW	852 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	932 MW	848 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	926 MW	830 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	924 MW	828 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	918 MW	825 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	900 MW	808 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	876 MW	779 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	859 MW	752 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	842 MW	740 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	837 MW	735 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	833 MW	732 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	836 MW	736 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	841 MW	744 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	867 MW	761 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	891 MW	787 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	919 MW	812 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	931 MW	832 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	934 MW	836 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	934 MW	852 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	934 MW	854 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	943 MW	854 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	944 MW	854 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	944 MW	853 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	951 MW	843 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	949 MW	841 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	941 MW	836 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	933 MW	826 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	928 MW	824 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	920 MW	819 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	899 MW	806 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	869 MW	776 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	849 MW	748 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	837 MW	745 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	820 MW	739 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	812 MW	737 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	817 MW	740 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	817 MW	750 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	838 MW	768 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	866 MW	792 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	900 MW	817 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	918 MW	832 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	919 MW	840 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	932 MW	860 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	935 MW	864 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	939 MW	868 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	942 MW	871 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	945 MW	872 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	948 MW	870 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	946 MW	867 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	939 MW	859 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	925 MW	845 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	912 MW	840 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	909 MW	832 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	894 MW	814 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	873 MW	783 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	857 MW	761 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	842 MW	741 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	841 MW	733 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	840 MW	728 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	844 MW	731 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	849 MW	737 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	857 MW	754 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	864 MW	776 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	892 MW	804 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	910 MW	821 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	915 MW	834 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	902 MW	857 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	902 MW	861 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	890 MW	862 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	883 MW	859 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	872 MW	860 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	876 MW	852 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	890 MW	844 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	909 MW	837 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	915 MW	823 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	924 MW	817 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	926 MW	812 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	912 MW	798 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	898 MW	773 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	889 MW	776 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	876 MW	761 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	870 MW	756 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	863 MW	755 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	861 MW	759 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	860 MW	760 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	872 MW	767 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	871 MW	779 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	894 MW	804 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	915 MW	833 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	929 MW	843 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	931 MW	860 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	940 MW	855 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	933 MW	848 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	940 MW	842 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	940 MW	840 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	938 MW	832 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	959 MW	832 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	964 MW	841 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	967 MW	835 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	969 MW	838 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	972 MW	840 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	952 MW	835 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	900 MW	818 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	880 MW	800 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	874 MW	784 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	870 MW	781 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	860 MW	776 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	860 MW	779 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	878 MW	780 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	909 MW	782 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	935 MW	787 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	975 MW	808 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	993 MW	834 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	1,000 MW	840 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	996 MW	846 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	989 MW	849 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	983 MW	845 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	972 MW	841 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	964 MW	840 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	953 MW	841 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	957 MW	845 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	973 MW	859 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	975 MW	849 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	980 MW	852 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	979 MW	850 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	958 MW	840 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	928 MW	818 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	908 MW	794 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	893 MW	796 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	887 MW	787 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	887 MW	783 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	889 MW	790 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	897 MW	799 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	922 MW	819 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	951 MW	847 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	967 MW	874 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	971 MW	901 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	962 MW	907 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	954 MW	909 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	951 MW	908 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	939 MW	903 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	924 MW	895 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	916 MW	888 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	915 MW	888 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	922 MW	889 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	929 MW	894 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	936 MW	883 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	945 MW	883 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	942 MW	880 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	923 MW	864 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	902 MW	837 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	880 MW	821 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	874 MW	805 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	874 MW	799 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	861 MW	798 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	862 MW	804 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	873 MW	811 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	888 MW	831 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_bhba_2026,
  title = {{BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/bhba/

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BHBA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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