Statistics
Page built 2026-10-28
Data as of 2026-10-28
Search
Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 202 MW (10.0%) too low at 1 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 202 MW (10.0%) too low at 1 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway West (NO5) came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 55 MW, against average demand of 1,949 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 35% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.8%
Bias-1.3%
Hours within 5%85%
Worst miss202 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 202 MW (10.0%) too low at 1 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,826 MW, reported 2,028 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway West (NO5) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:002,021 MW2,044 MW
21 Oct, 15:002,023 MW2,060 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,044 MW2,061 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,042 MW2,076 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,069 MW2,093 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,083 MW2,086 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,071 MW2,077 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,047 MW2,043 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,992 MW1,992 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,902 MW1,944 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,841 MW1,905 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,794 MW1,873 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,775 MW1,834 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,756 MW1,835 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,745 MW1,800 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,762 MW1,849 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,863 MW1,921 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,028 MW2,011 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,059 MW2,083 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,009 MW2,091 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,960 MW2,092 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,955 MW2,057 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,959 MW2,038 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,949 MW2,024 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,938 MW2,021 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,947 MW2,036 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,988 MW2,045 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,036 MW2,059 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,100 MW2,064 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,116 MW2,059 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,112 MW2,050 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,088 MW2,020 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,042 MW1,975 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,979 MW1,922 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,933 MW1,850 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,888 MW1,821 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,864 MW1,804 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,842 MW1,800 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,835 MW1,795 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,855 MW1,838 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,964 MW1,918 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,097 MW2,006 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,151 MW2,071 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,120 MW2,088 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,089 MW2,078 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,055 MW2,061 MW
23 Oct, 12:002,029 MW2,051 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,996 MW2,035 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,995 MW2,023 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,995 MW2,020 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,016 MW2,037 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,010 MW2,035 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,054 MW2,043 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,044 MW2,044 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,006 MW2,038 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,972 MW2,004 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,956 MW1,957 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,910 MW1,917 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,881 MW1,936 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,845 MW1,911 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,826 MW1,880 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,824 MW1,864 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,821 MW1,845 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,827 MW1,854 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,848 MW1,888 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,887 MW1,953 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,923 MW1,990 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,971 MW2,007 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,002 MW2,009 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,992 MW1,990 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,963 MW1,993 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,942 MW1,979 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,937 MW1,972 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,930 MW1,985 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,938 MW1,998 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,961 MW2,014 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,999 MW2,036 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,982 MW2,039 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,936 MW2,026 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,903 MW1,984 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,876 MW1,928 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,850 MW1,886 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,815 MW1,844 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,780 MW1,806 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,755 MW1,784 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,747 MW1,773 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,758 MW1,759 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,759 MW1,749 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,787 MW1,774 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,819 MW1,807 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,843 MW1,834 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,875 MW1,849 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,909 MW1,872 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,929 MW1,868 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,932 MW1,869 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,954 MW1,880 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,960 MW1,872 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,972 MW1,895 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,976 MW1,903 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,978 MW1,923 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,991 MW1,957 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,989 MW1,959 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,992 MW1,954 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,982 MW1,944 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,969 MW1,914 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,951 MW1,881 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,899 MWn/a
26 Oct, 00:001,854 MW1,849 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,815 MW1,826 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,806 MW1,810 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,802 MW1,812 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,801 MW1,811 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,837 MW1,853 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,924 MW1,929 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,037 MW1,996 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,060 MW2,042 MW
26 Oct, 09:002,045 MW2,054 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,945 MW2,051 MW
26 Oct, 11:002,025 MW2,037 MW
26 Oct, 12:002,040 MW2,021 MW
26 Oct, 13:002,024 MW2,010 MW
26 Oct, 14:002,011 MW2,017 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,031 MW2,043 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,048 MW2,049 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,084 MW2,061 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,078 MW2,052 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,962 MW2,038 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,073 MW2,020 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,037 MW1,984 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,991 MW1,942 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,929 MW1,893 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,896 MW1,888 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,859 MW1,862 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,837 MW1,830 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,825 MW1,815 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,809 MW1,797 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,829 MW1,829 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,908 MW1,897 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,967 MW1,966 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,939 MW2,009 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,938 MW2,014 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,945 MW2,011 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,928 MW1,990 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,926 MW1,985 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,897 MW1,977 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,902 MW1,990 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,911 MW2,005 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,974 MW2,009 MW
27 Oct, 17:001,988 MW2,016 MW
27 Oct, 18:001,985 MW2,010 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,010 MW2,011 MW
27 Oct, 20:001,992 MW1,995 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,967 MW1,958 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,910 MW1,911 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,843 MW1,864 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,794 MW1,819 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,770 MW1,802 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,747 MW1,781 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,741 MW1,787 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,740 MW1,751 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,764 MW1,812 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,870 MW1,866 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,942 MW1,922 MW
28 Oct, 08:002,012 MW1,953 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,953 MW1,985 MW
28 Oct, 10:002,009 MW1,999 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,977 MW1,970 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,969 MW1,981 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no5_2026,
  title = {{Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.