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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 263 MW (15.7%) too low at 6 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Zagreb).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 263 MW (15.7%) too low at 6 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Croatia came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 63 MW, against average demand of 1,890 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 65% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias+1.2%
Hours within 5%74%
Worst miss263 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+23 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 263 MW (15.7%) too low at 6 Oct 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,417 MW, reported 1,680 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Croatia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 21 Oct, 15:0022 Oct, 15:0023 Oct, 15:0024 Oct, 15:0025 Oct, 14:0026 Oct, 14:0027 Oct, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 15:002,198 MW2,226 MW
21 Oct, 16:002,242 MW2,224 MW
21 Oct, 17:002,312 MW2,334 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,461 MW2,494 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,503 MW2,504 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,443 MW2,530 MW
21 Oct, 21:002,268 MW2,290 MW
21 Oct, 22:002,107 MW2,140 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,872 MW1,790 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,682 MW1,627 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,564 MW1,516 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,502 MW1,452 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,493 MW1,445 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,520 MW1,490 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,659 MW1,660 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,007 MW2,150 MW
22 Oct, 07:002,268 MW2,288 MW
22 Oct, 08:002,346 MW2,329 MW
22 Oct, 09:002,335 MW2,498 MW
22 Oct, 10:002,275 MW2,410 MW
22 Oct, 11:002,290 MW2,436 MW
22 Oct, 12:002,291 MW2,461 MW
22 Oct, 13:002,250 MW2,374 MW
22 Oct, 14:002,195 MW2,335 MW
22 Oct, 15:002,125 MW2,256 MW
22 Oct, 16:002,184 MW2,220 MW
22 Oct, 17:002,285 MW2,311 MW
22 Oct, 18:002,454 MW2,481 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,498 MW2,514 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,444 MW2,437 MW
22 Oct, 21:002,286 MW2,315 MW
22 Oct, 22:002,130 MW2,149 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,918 MW1,902 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,721 MW1,763 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,605 MW1,627 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,539 MW1,584 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,527 MW1,551 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,543 MW1,603 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,696 MW1,735 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,078 MW2,111 MW
23 Oct, 07:002,323 MW2,307 MW
23 Oct, 08:002,359 MW2,368 MW
23 Oct, 09:002,282 MW2,252 MW
23 Oct, 10:002,131 MW1,871 MW
23 Oct, 11:002,018 MW1,795 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,933 MW1,741 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,933 MW1,763 MW
23 Oct, 14:002,010 MW1,802 MW
23 Oct, 15:002,031 MW1,893 MW
23 Oct, 16:002,100 MW1,980 MW
23 Oct, 17:002,244 MW2,265 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,462 MW2,529 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,524 MW2,581 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,436 MW2,516 MW
23 Oct, 21:002,286 MW2,366 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,151 MW2,201 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,950 MW2,013 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,753 MW1,752 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,619 MW1,600 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,532 MW1,552 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,505 MW1,518 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,513 MW1,520 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,592 MW1,608 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,772 MW1,778 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,933 MW1,928 MW
24 Oct, 08:002,082 MW2,078 MW
24 Oct, 09:002,168 MW2,152 MW
24 Oct, 10:002,177 MW2,150 MW
24 Oct, 11:002,193 MW2,200 MW
24 Oct, 12:002,144 MW2,180 MW
24 Oct, 13:002,131 MW2,147 MW
24 Oct, 14:002,066 MW2,117 MW
24 Oct, 15:002,107 MW1,934 MW
24 Oct, 16:002,135 MW2,125 MW
24 Oct, 17:002,169 MW2,242 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,325 MW2,360 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,331 MW2,345 MW
24 Oct, 20:002,269 MW2,322 MW
24 Oct, 21:002,139 MW2,213 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,048 MW1,946 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,868 MW1,745 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,682 MW1,650 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,546 MW1,591 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,471 MW1,464 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,438 MW1,465 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,421 MW1,447 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,441 MW1,456 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,512 MW1,540 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,621 MW1,632 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,724 MW1,700 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,758 MW1,727 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,711 MW1,771 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,682 MW1,796 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,712 MW1,817 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,754 MW1,800 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,827 MW1,792 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,854 MW1,830 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,894 MW1,913 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,997 MW2,013 MW
25 Oct, 17:002,205 MW2,165 MW
25 Oct, 18:002,267 MW2,206 MW
25 Oct, 19:002,274 MW2,245 MW
25 Oct, 20:002,234 MW2,203 MW
25 Oct, 21:002,172 MW2,138 MW
25 Oct, 22:002,006 MW2,059 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,796 MW1,791 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,614 MW1,588 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,510 MW1,469 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,474 MW1,481 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,456 MW1,456 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,505 MW1,482 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,680 MW1,654 MW
26 Oct, 06:002,050 MW2,108 MW
26 Oct, 07:002,209 MW2,261 MW
26 Oct, 08:002,130 MW2,216 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,977 MW2,024 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,839 MW1,840 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,803 MW1,801 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,836 MW1,877 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,886 MW1,886 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,972 MW2,017 MW
26 Oct, 15:002,111 MW2,138 MW
26 Oct, 16:002,315 MW2,297 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,547 MW2,581 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,580 MW2,574 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,582 MW2,628 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,514 MW2,544 MW
26 Oct, 21:002,388 MW2,350 MW
26 Oct, 22:002,174 MW2,200 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,907 MW1,906 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,723 MW1,803 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,616 MW1,630 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,559 MW1,561 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,558 MW1,563 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,598 MW1,587 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,779 MW1,878 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,141 MW2,180 MW
27 Oct, 07:002,290 MW2,357 MW
27 Oct, 08:002,186 MW2,268 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,987 MW2,067 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,821 MW1,947 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,811 MW1,837 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,819 MW1,894 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,867 MW1,910 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,938 MW1,930 MW
27 Oct, 15:002,067 MW2,211 MW
27 Oct, 16:002,293 MW2,326 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,580 MW2,588 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,625 MW2,644 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,631 MW2,641 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,545 MW2,563 MW
27 Oct, 21:002,430 MW2,460 MW
27 Oct, 22:002,203 MW2,266 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,939 MW1,966 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,750 MW1,748 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,640 MW1,636 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,590 MW1,581 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,591 MW1,550 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,646 MW1,617 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,819 MW1,883 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,174 MW2,203 MW
28 Oct, 07:002,302 MW2,331 MW
28 Oct, 08:002,200 MW2,267 MW
28 Oct, 09:002,013 MW2,208 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,862 MW1,830 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,837 MW1,808 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,872 MW1,854 MW
28 Oct, 13:001,889 MW1,919 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hr_2026,
  title = {{Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/}
}

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