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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 229 MW (7.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 229 MW (7.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway Central (NO3) came 8 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 60 MW, against average demand of 3,062 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 40% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.0%
Bias-0.6%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss229 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 229 MW (7.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 17:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,134 MW, reported 2,905 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway Central (NO3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:003,204 MW3,242 MW
21 Oct, 15:003,226 MW3,239 MW
21 Oct, 16:003,234 MW3,255 MW
21 Oct, 17:003,223 MW3,241 MW
21 Oct, 18:003,288 MW3,262 MW
21 Oct, 19:003,281 MW3,265 MW
21 Oct, 20:003,266 MW3,281 MW
21 Oct, 21:003,230 MW3,257 MW
21 Oct, 22:003,166 MW3,175 MW
21 Oct, 23:003,051 MW3,117 MW
22 Oct, 00:002,955 MW2,952 MW
22 Oct, 01:002,887 MW2,890 MW
22 Oct, 02:002,848 MW2,857 MW
22 Oct, 03:002,821 MW2,839 MW
22 Oct, 04:002,815 MW2,835 MW
22 Oct, 05:002,850 MW2,880 MW
22 Oct, 06:002,993 MW3,015 MW
22 Oct, 07:003,192 MW3,178 MW
22 Oct, 08:003,254 MW3,222 MW
22 Oct, 09:003,204 MW3,240 MW
22 Oct, 10:003,208 MW3,219 MW
22 Oct, 11:003,187 MW3,196 MW
22 Oct, 12:003,165 MW3,176 MW
22 Oct, 13:003,142 MW3,158 MW
22 Oct, 14:003,133 MW3,183 MW
22 Oct, 15:003,147 MW3,165 MW
22 Oct, 16:003,186 MW3,195 MW
22 Oct, 17:003,179 MW3,178 MW
22 Oct, 18:003,176 MW3,184 MW
22 Oct, 19:003,174 MW3,181 MW
22 Oct, 20:003,167 MW3,206 MW
22 Oct, 21:003,117 MW3,156 MW
22 Oct, 22:003,072 MW3,096 MW
22 Oct, 23:002,974 MW3,006 MW
23 Oct, 00:002,877 MW2,904 MW
23 Oct, 01:002,812 MW2,863 MW
23 Oct, 02:002,773 MW2,819 MW
23 Oct, 03:002,753 MW2,818 MW
23 Oct, 04:002,744 MW2,823 MW
23 Oct, 05:002,784 MW2,833 MW
23 Oct, 06:002,893 MW2,972 MW
23 Oct, 07:003,089 MW3,128 MW
23 Oct, 08:003,157 MW3,221 MW
23 Oct, 09:003,152 MW3,238 MW
23 Oct, 10:003,159 MW3,221 MW
23 Oct, 11:003,128 MW3,200 MW
23 Oct, 12:003,121 MW3,165 MW
23 Oct, 13:003,098 MW3,168 MW
23 Oct, 14:003,098 MW3,143 MW
23 Oct, 15:003,107 MW3,127 MW
23 Oct, 16:003,113 MW3,141 MW
23 Oct, 17:003,107 MW3,146 MW
23 Oct, 18:003,148 MW3,159 MW
23 Oct, 19:003,133 MW3,144 MW
23 Oct, 20:003,072 MW3,128 MW
23 Oct, 21:003,010 MW3,095 MW
23 Oct, 22:002,980 MW3,047 MW
23 Oct, 23:002,924 MW2,951 MW
24 Oct, 00:002,862 MW2,886 MW
24 Oct, 01:002,791 MW2,866 MW
24 Oct, 02:002,769 MW2,838 MW
24 Oct, 03:002,779 MW2,829 MW
24 Oct, 04:002,780 MW2,790 MW
24 Oct, 05:002,793 MW2,821 MW
24 Oct, 06:002,846 MW2,869 MW
24 Oct, 07:002,930 MW2,947 MW
24 Oct, 08:003,032 MW3,001 MW
24 Oct, 09:003,105 MW3,063 MW
24 Oct, 10:003,120 MW3,073 MW
24 Oct, 11:003,101 MW3,063 MW
24 Oct, 12:003,057 MW3,054 MW
24 Oct, 13:003,030 MW3,022 MW
24 Oct, 14:003,022 MW3,019 MW
24 Oct, 15:003,045 MW3,012 MW
24 Oct, 16:003,065 MW3,031 MW
24 Oct, 17:003,114 MW3,047 MW
24 Oct, 18:003,148 MW3,071 MW
24 Oct, 19:003,127 MW3,077 MW
24 Oct, 20:003,077 MW3,053 MW
24 Oct, 21:003,021 MW3,013 MW
24 Oct, 22:002,975 MW2,971 MW
24 Oct, 23:002,904 MW2,922 MW
25 Oct, 00:002,835 MW2,823 MW
25 Oct, 01:002,795 MW2,799 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,735 MW2,767 MW
25 Oct, 02:002,721 MW2,740 MW
25 Oct, 03:002,682 MW2,706 MW
25 Oct, 04:002,712 MW2,712 MW
25 Oct, 05:002,701 MW2,741 MW
25 Oct, 06:002,727 MW2,762 MW
25 Oct, 07:002,788 MW2,851 MW
25 Oct, 08:002,874 MW2,876 MW
25 Oct, 09:002,918 MW2,928 MW
25 Oct, 10:002,960 MW2,929 MW
25 Oct, 11:002,980 MW2,936 MW
25 Oct, 12:002,977 MW2,943 MW
25 Oct, 13:003,003 MW2,944 MW
25 Oct, 14:003,021 MW2,968 MW
25 Oct, 15:003,035 MW2,997 MW
25 Oct, 16:003,076 MW3,033 MW
25 Oct, 17:003,101 MW3,063 MW
25 Oct, 18:003,107 MW3,050 MW
25 Oct, 19:003,114 MW3,061 MW
25 Oct, 20:003,095 MW3,046 MW
25 Oct, 21:003,052 MW3,014 MW
25 Oct, 22:003,018 MW2,953 MW
25 Oct, 23:002,950 MWn/a
26 Oct, 00:002,880 MW2,802 MW
26 Oct, 01:002,826 MW2,760 MW
26 Oct, 02:002,799 MW2,762 MW
26 Oct, 03:002,780 MW2,768 MW
26 Oct, 04:002,783 MW2,805 MW
26 Oct, 05:002,859 MW2,869 MW
26 Oct, 06:003,017 MW3,015 MW
26 Oct, 07:003,202 MW3,158 MW
26 Oct, 08:003,246 MW3,206 MW
26 Oct, 09:003,213 MW3,202 MW
26 Oct, 10:003,228 MW3,184 MW
26 Oct, 11:003,217 MW3,146 MW
26 Oct, 12:003,192 MW3,133 MW
26 Oct, 13:003,159 MW3,118 MW
26 Oct, 14:003,178 MW3,138 MW
26 Oct, 15:003,198 MW3,155 MW
26 Oct, 16:003,265 MW3,187 MW
26 Oct, 17:003,284 MW3,170 MW
26 Oct, 18:003,248 MW3,176 MW
26 Oct, 19:003,046 MW3,152 MW
26 Oct, 20:003,228 MW3,125 MW
26 Oct, 21:003,184 MW3,044 MW
26 Oct, 22:003,148 MW3,017 MW
26 Oct, 23:003,069 MW2,911 MW
27 Oct, 00:002,916 MW2,918 MW
27 Oct, 01:002,884 MW2,873 MW
27 Oct, 02:002,855 MW2,847 MW
27 Oct, 03:002,835 MW2,831 MW
27 Oct, 04:002,810 MW2,844 MW
27 Oct, 05:002,880 MW2,894 MW
27 Oct, 06:002,982 MW3,021 MW
27 Oct, 07:003,161 MW3,161 MW
27 Oct, 08:003,221 MW3,190 MW
27 Oct, 09:003,159 MW3,184 MW
27 Oct, 10:003,102 MW3,165 MW
27 Oct, 11:003,052 MW3,119 MW
27 Oct, 12:003,103 MW3,091 MW
27 Oct, 13:003,134 MW3,102 MW
27 Oct, 14:003,164 MW3,107 MW
27 Oct, 15:003,201 MW3,124 MW
27 Oct, 16:003,243 MW3,137 MW
27 Oct, 17:003,265 MW3,118 MW
27 Oct, 18:003,237 MW3,117 MW
27 Oct, 19:003,209 MW3,113 MW
27 Oct, 20:003,138 MW3,085 MW
27 Oct, 21:003,079 MW3,054 MW
27 Oct, 22:003,019 MW2,995 MW
27 Oct, 23:002,919 MW2,907 MW
28 Oct, 00:002,850 MW2,832 MW
28 Oct, 01:002,800 MW2,795 MW
28 Oct, 02:002,783 MW2,762 MW
28 Oct, 03:002,775 MW2,766 MW
28 Oct, 04:002,746 MW2,753 MW
28 Oct, 05:002,834 MW2,806 MW
28 Oct, 06:002,999 MW2,947 MW
28 Oct, 07:003,168 MW3,116 MW
28 Oct, 08:003,212 MW3,157 MW
28 Oct, 09:003,192 MW3,165 MW
28 Oct, 10:003,176 MW3,134 MW
28 Oct, 11:003,169 MW3,129 MW
28 Oct, 12:003,147 MW3,138 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no3_2026,
  title = {{Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/}
}

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