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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 1.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.3%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, MISO came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,269 MW, against average demand of 72,169 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 80% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.8%
Bias+1.3%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss5,043 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+890 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 90,271 MW, reported 85,228 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
MISO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:0071,706 MW72,391 MW
21 Oct, 09:0071,143 MW72,234 MW
21 Oct, 10:0070,490 MW71,623 MW
21 Oct, 11:0070,465 MW71,635 MW
21 Oct, 12:0070,934 MW71,914 MW
21 Oct, 13:0071,841 MW72,452 MW
21 Oct, 14:0072,954 MW73,100 MW
21 Oct, 15:0073,743 MW73,688 MW
21 Oct, 16:0074,577 MW74,245 MW
21 Oct, 17:0075,657 MW74,874 MW
21 Oct, 18:0076,421 MW75,704 MW
21 Oct, 19:0076,710 MW76,167 MW
21 Oct, 20:0075,971 MW75,685 MW
21 Oct, 21:0073,896 MW74,061 MW
21 Oct, 22:0070,652 MW71,205 MW
21 Oct, 23:0067,262 MW67,977 MW
22 Oct, 00:0064,140 MW64,818 MW
22 Oct, 01:0062,081 MW62,889 MW
22 Oct, 02:0060,806 MW61,486 MW
22 Oct, 03:0060,083 MW60,751 MW
22 Oct, 04:0060,218 MW60,842 MW
22 Oct, 05:0061,592 MW62,328 MW
22 Oct, 06:0064,846 MW65,788 MW
22 Oct, 07:0069,288 MW70,414 MW
22 Oct, 08:0071,678 MW72,699 MW
22 Oct, 09:0071,705 MW72,835 MW
22 Oct, 10:0071,351 MW72,587 MW
22 Oct, 11:0071,655 MW72,948 MW
22 Oct, 12:0072,485 MW73,560 MW
22 Oct, 13:0073,308 MW74,448 MW
22 Oct, 14:0074,124 MW75,414 MW
22 Oct, 15:0074,904 MW76,173 MW
22 Oct, 16:0075,954 MW76,732 MW
22 Oct, 17:0076,935 MW77,063 MW
22 Oct, 18:0077,245 MW77,388 MW
22 Oct, 19:0077,486 MW77,570 MW
22 Oct, 20:0076,913 MW76,862 MW
22 Oct, 21:0074,724 MW75,107 MW
22 Oct, 22:0071,571 MW72,390 MW
22 Oct, 23:0067,897 MW69,256 MW
23 Oct, 00:0064,985 MW66,042 MW
23 Oct, 01:0062,572 MW63,885 MW
23 Oct, 02:0061,173 MW62,373 MW
23 Oct, 03:0060,225 MW61,489 MW
23 Oct, 04:0060,165 MW61,379 MW
23 Oct, 05:0061,228 MW62,617 MW
23 Oct, 06:0064,176 MW65,720 MW
23 Oct, 07:0068,658 MW70,062 MW
23 Oct, 08:0071,103 MW72,444 MW
23 Oct, 09:0071,550 MW72,920 MW
23 Oct, 10:0071,300 MW72,839 MW
23 Oct, 11:0071,395 MW73,041 MW
23 Oct, 12:0072,117 MW73,413 MW
23 Oct, 13:0072,869 MW74,195 MW
23 Oct, 14:0073,542 MW75,132 MW
23 Oct, 15:0074,530 MW75,892 MW
23 Oct, 16:0075,428 MW76,266 MW
23 Oct, 17:0076,138 MW76,345 MW
23 Oct, 18:0076,016 MW76,177 MW
23 Oct, 19:0075,718 MW75,679 MW
23 Oct, 20:0074,256 MW74,733 MW
23 Oct, 21:0071,916 MW73,056 MW
23 Oct, 22:0069,319 MW70,684 MW
23 Oct, 23:0066,570 MW67,919 MW
24 Oct, 00:0063,556 MW64,995 MW
24 Oct, 01:0061,262 MW62,495 MW
24 Oct, 02:0059,638 MW60,790 MW
24 Oct, 03:0058,584 MW59,760 MW
24 Oct, 04:0058,232 MW59,266 MW
24 Oct, 05:0058,345 MW59,468 MW
24 Oct, 06:0059,830 MW60,652 MW
24 Oct, 07:0061,706 MW62,818 MW
24 Oct, 08:0063,396 MW64,798 MW
24 Oct, 09:0064,871 MW65,757 MW
24 Oct, 10:0065,411 MW66,403 MW
24 Oct, 11:0065,781 MW67,162 MW
24 Oct, 12:0066,490 MW67,813 MW
24 Oct, 13:0067,198 MW68,644 MW
24 Oct, 14:0068,191 MW69,691 MW
24 Oct, 15:0069,203 MW70,757 MW
24 Oct, 16:0070,576 MW71,575 MW
24 Oct, 17:0071,409 MW71,965 MW
24 Oct, 18:0072,001 MW72,193 MW
24 Oct, 19:0072,058 MW72,294 MW
24 Oct, 20:0070,813 MW71,577 MW
24 Oct, 21:0068,793 MW70,125 MW
24 Oct, 22:0066,798 MW67,966 MW
24 Oct, 23:0064,381 MW65,497 MW
25 Oct, 00:0061,694 MW62,732 MW
25 Oct, 01:0059,617 MW60,649 MW
25 Oct, 02:0058,128 MW59,127 MW
25 Oct, 03:0057,381 MW58,225 MW
25 Oct, 04:0057,045 MW57,840 MW
25 Oct, 05:0057,183 MW57,993 MW
25 Oct, 06:0058,004 MW58,965 MW
25 Oct, 07:0059,567 MW60,983 MW
25 Oct, 08:0061,392 MW62,774 MW
25 Oct, 09:0062,643 MW63,715 MW
25 Oct, 10:0063,095 MW64,437 MW
25 Oct, 11:0064,091 MW65,455 MW
25 Oct, 12:0064,890 MW66,475 MW
25 Oct, 13:0066,037 MW67,844 MW
25 Oct, 14:0067,277 MW69,374 MW
25 Oct, 15:0068,334 MW70,755 MW
25 Oct, 16:0069,913 MW72,001 MW
25 Oct, 17:0070,993 MW72,799 MW
25 Oct, 18:0072,151 MW73,425 MW
25 Oct, 19:0073,161 MW73,797 MW
25 Oct, 20:0072,670 MW73,255 MW
25 Oct, 21:0070,716 MW71,501 MW
25 Oct, 22:0067,971 MW68,790 MW
25 Oct, 23:0064,528 MW65,757 MW
26 Oct, 00:0061,915 MW62,830 MW
26 Oct, 01:0060,295 MW60,783 MW
26 Oct, 02:0059,105 MW59,534 MW
26 Oct, 03:0058,466 MW58,928 MW
26 Oct, 04:0058,619 MW59,183 MW
26 Oct, 05:0060,053 MW60,837 MW
26 Oct, 06:0063,570 MW64,431 MW
26 Oct, 07:0068,528 MW69,298 MW
26 Oct, 08:0071,457 MW72,247 MW
26 Oct, 09:0072,140 MW73,042 MW
26 Oct, 10:0072,374 MW73,443 MW
26 Oct, 11:0072,897 MW74,332 MW
26 Oct, 12:0073,330 MW75,217 MW
26 Oct, 13:0074,096 MW76,258 MW
26 Oct, 14:0074,950 MW77,333 MW
26 Oct, 15:0075,322 MW77,960 MW
26 Oct, 16:0075,474 MW78,200 MW
26 Oct, 17:0076,379 MW78,240 MW
26 Oct, 18:0077,140 MW78,364 MW
26 Oct, 19:0077,725 MW78,501 MW
26 Oct, 20:0076,856 MW77,588 MW
26 Oct, 21:0074,680 MW75,441 MW
26 Oct, 22:0071,764 MW72,303 MW
26 Oct, 23:0068,102 MW68,942 MW
27 Oct, 00:0065,251 MW65,653 MW
27 Oct, 01:0063,062 MW63,381 MW
27 Oct, 02:0061,690 MW61,938 MW
27 Oct, 03:0060,806 MW61,125 MW
27 Oct, 04:0061,071 MW61,119 MW
27 Oct, 05:0062,115 MW62,461 MW
27 Oct, 06:0065,465 MW65,801 MW
27 Oct, 07:0070,040 MW70,497 MW
27 Oct, 08:0072,452 MW73,127 MW
27 Oct, 09:0072,951 MW73,459 MW
27 Oct, 10:0073,002 MW73,430 MW
27 Oct, 11:0073,483 MW73,991 MW
27 Oct, 12:0074,127 MW74,817 MW
27 Oct, 13:0074,668 MW75,872 MW
27 Oct, 14:0075,400 MW76,906 MW
27 Oct, 15:0075,513 MW77,434 MW
27 Oct, 16:0075,636 MW77,652 MW
27 Oct, 17:0076,016 MW77,652 MW
27 Oct, 18:0076,216 MW77,733 MW
27 Oct, 19:0077,042 MW78,022 MW
27 Oct, 20:0076,603 MW77,127 MW
27 Oct, 21:0074,739 MW74,932 MW
27 Oct, 22:0071,840 MW71,874 MW
27 Oct, 23:0068,516 MW68,541 MW
28 Oct, 00:0065,658 MW65,302 MW
28 Oct, 01:0067,044 MW63,157 MW
28 Oct, 02:0065,438 MW61,604 MW
28 Oct, 03:0064,550 MW60,725 MW
28 Oct, 04:0064,447 MW60,643 MW
28 Oct, 05:0065,895 MW61,892 MW
28 Oct, 06:0069,604 MW65,047 MW
28 Oct, 07:0074,180 MW69,542 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_miso_2026,
  title = {{MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/}
}

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