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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 277 MW (18.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 03:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 77% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 277 MW (18.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 03:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sicily came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 57 MW, against average demand of 1,714 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error3.3%
Bias+0.7%
Hours within 5%77%
Worst miss277 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 277 MW (18.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 03:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 1,238 MW, reported 1,514 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Sicily day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:001,829 MW1,848 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,831 MW1,843 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,843 MW1,918 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,882 MW1,973 MW
21 Oct, 18:002,042 MW2,090 MW
21 Oct, 19:002,170 MW2,210 MW
21 Oct, 20:002,094 MW2,130 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,916 MW1,960 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,765 MW1,778 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,604 MW1,595 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,437 MW1,458 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,345 MW1,360 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,304 MW1,315 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,271 MW1,298 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,271 MW1,288 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,331 MW1,350 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,520 MW1,520 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,713 MW1,730 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,814 MW1,903 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,775 MW1,960 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,729 MW1,903 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,669 MW1,898 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,600 MW1,778 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,557 MW1,653 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,540 MW1,648 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,577 MW1,755 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,744 MW1,870 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,807 MW1,895 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,989 MW2,023 MW
22 Oct, 19:002,125 MW2,135 MW
22 Oct, 20:002,051 MW2,043 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,903 MW1,918 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,766 MW1,780 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,613 MW1,613 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,471 MW1,463 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,372 MW1,365 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,311 MW1,318 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,285 MW1,308 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,300 MW1,313 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,385 MW1,378 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,577 MW1,530 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,787 MW1,733 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,877 MW1,875 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,883 MW1,978 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,853 MW1,935 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,769 MW1,910 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,712 MW1,795 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,653 MW1,683 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,655 MW1,658 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,665 MW1,765 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,755 MW1,908 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,877 MW1,950 MW
23 Oct, 18:002,068 MW2,055 MW
23 Oct, 19:002,182 MW2,170 MW
23 Oct, 20:002,107 MW2,070 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,943 MW1,920 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,787 MW1,770 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,618 MW1,603 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,488 MW1,490 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,392 MW1,365 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,346 MW1,315 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,319 MW1,295 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,325 MW1,318 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,363 MW1,345 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,468 MW1,448 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,599 MW1,563 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,734 MW1,760 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,842 MW1,880 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,824 MW1,888 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,787 MW1,828 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,806 MW1,778 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,791 MW1,703 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,792 MW1,723 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,750 MW1,743 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,760 MW1,773 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,824 MW1,803 MW
24 Oct, 18:002,001 MW1,935 MW
24 Oct, 19:002,075 MW2,013 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,996 MW1,955 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,827 MW1,813 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,679 MW1,695 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,564 MW1,583 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,436 MW1,453 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,357 MW1,358 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,245 MW1,295 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,328 MW1,265 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,514 MW1,238 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,274 MW1,210 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,294 MW1,260 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,348 MW1,323 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,478 MW1,403 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,673 MW1,528 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,778 MW1,598 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,678 MW1,620 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,643 MW1,583 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,656 MW1,548 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,514 MW1,445 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,513 MW1,383 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,567 MW1,395 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,574 MW1,460 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,758 MW1,630 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,843 MW1,798 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,859 MW1,880 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,818 MW1,870 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,682 MW1,753 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,566 MW1,630 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,437 MW1,473 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,314 MW1,305 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,236 MW1,250 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,197 MW1,215 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,203 MW1,223 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,217 MW1,280 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,293 MW1,428 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,449 MW1,625 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,703 MW1,793 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,847 MW1,850 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,833 MW1,793 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,788 MW1,738 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,744 MW1,723 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,830 MW1,700 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,746 MW1,733 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,814 MW1,738 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,831 MW1,790 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,895 MW1,880 MW
26 Oct, 17:002,037 MW2,010 MW
26 Oct, 18:002,106 MW2,148 MW
26 Oct, 19:002,135 MW2,070 MW
26 Oct, 20:002,068 MW1,943 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,905 MW1,835 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,735 MW1,680 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,565 MW1,535 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,400 MW1,408 MW
27 Oct, 01:001,339 MW1,340 MW
27 Oct, 02:001,289 MW1,303 MW
27 Oct, 03:001,263 MW1,308 MW
27 Oct, 04:001,291 MW1,358 MW
27 Oct, 05:001,372 MW1,480 MW
27 Oct, 06:001,533 MW1,698 MW
27 Oct, 07:001,743 MW1,835 MW
27 Oct, 08:001,824 MW1,910 MW
27 Oct, 09:001,736 MW1,853 MW
27 Oct, 10:001,677 MW1,793 MW
27 Oct, 11:001,633 MW1,770 MW
27 Oct, 12:001,600 MW1,710 MW
27 Oct, 13:001,574 MW1,720 MW
27 Oct, 14:001,591 MW1,785 MW
27 Oct, 15:001,767 MW1,883 MW
27 Oct, 16:001,862 MW1,970 MW
27 Oct, 17:002,031 MW2,098 MW
27 Oct, 18:002,113 MW2,198 MW
27 Oct, 19:002,138 MW2,133 MW
27 Oct, 20:002,063 MW2,003 MW
27 Oct, 21:001,902 MW1,890 MW
27 Oct, 22:001,748 MW1,735 MW
27 Oct, 23:001,564 MW1,570 MW
28 Oct, 00:001,486 MW1,448 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,402 MW1,340 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,357 MW1,290 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,335 MW1,308 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,342 MW1,330 MW
28 Oct, 05:001,425 MW1,430 MW
28 Oct, 06:001,579 MW1,580 MW
28 Oct, 07:001,815 MW1,773 MW
28 Oct, 08:001,837 MW1,865 MW
28 Oct, 09:001,791 MW1,835 MW
28 Oct, 10:001,683 MW1,778 MW
28 Oct, 11:001,631 MW1,743 MW
28 Oct, 12:001,599 MW1,728 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sici_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/}
}

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