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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Czechia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Czechia was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 435 MW (6.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Prague).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Czechia was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 435 MW (6.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Czechia came 2 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 83 MW, against average demand of 7,048 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.2%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss435 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+10 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 435 MW (6.3%) too low at 25 Oct 2026, 08:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 6,454 MW, reported 6,889 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Czechia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Czechia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 21 Oct, 15:0022 Oct, 15:0023 Oct, 15:0024 Oct, 15:0025 Oct, 14:0026 Oct, 14:0027 Oct, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Czechia over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 15:007,873 MW7,952 MW
21 Oct, 16:007,644 MW7,794 MW
21 Oct, 17:007,705 MW7,782 MW
21 Oct, 18:007,855 MW7,902 MW
21 Oct, 19:007,868 MW7,879 MW
21 Oct, 20:007,634 MW7,539 MW
21 Oct, 21:007,058 MW7,086 MW
21 Oct, 22:006,699 MW6,730 MW
21 Oct, 23:006,331 MW6,351 MW
22 Oct, 00:006,087 MW6,142 MW
22 Oct, 01:006,114 MW6,138 MW
22 Oct, 02:005,901 MW6,002 MW
22 Oct, 03:005,950 MW5,953 MW
22 Oct, 04:006,121 MW6,091 MW
22 Oct, 05:006,627 MW6,640 MW
22 Oct, 06:007,673 MW7,751 MW
22 Oct, 07:008,340 MW8,343 MW
22 Oct, 08:008,436 MW8,536 MW
22 Oct, 09:008,587 MW8,704 MW
22 Oct, 10:008,748 MW8,751 MW
22 Oct, 11:008,914 MW8,886 MW
22 Oct, 12:009,003 MW8,957 MW
22 Oct, 13:008,994 MW8,877 MW
22 Oct, 14:008,577 MW8,553 MW
22 Oct, 15:008,275 MW8,363 MW
22 Oct, 16:008,001 MW8,158 MW
22 Oct, 17:007,870 MW8,086 MW
22 Oct, 18:008,036 MW8,195 MW
22 Oct, 19:008,012 MW8,141 MW
22 Oct, 20:007,778 MW7,790 MW
22 Oct, 21:007,342 MW7,331 MW
22 Oct, 22:006,896 MW6,956 MW
22 Oct, 23:006,546 MW6,559 MW
23 Oct, 00:006,347 MW6,234 MW
23 Oct, 01:006,353 MW6,216 MW
23 Oct, 02:006,206 MW6,116 MW
23 Oct, 03:006,179 MW6,086 MW
23 Oct, 04:006,313 MW6,242 MW
23 Oct, 05:006,802 MW6,794 MW
23 Oct, 06:007,879 MW7,896 MW
23 Oct, 07:008,354 MW8,411 MW
23 Oct, 08:008,607 MW8,602 MW
23 Oct, 09:008,789 MW8,768 MW
23 Oct, 10:008,706 MW8,741 MW
23 Oct, 11:008,641 MW8,808 MW
23 Oct, 12:008,659 MW8,770 MW
23 Oct, 13:008,610 MW8,629 MW
23 Oct, 14:008,168 MW8,233 MW
23 Oct, 15:008,074 MW7,972 MW
23 Oct, 16:007,775 MW7,783 MW
23 Oct, 17:007,776 MW7,733 MW
23 Oct, 18:007,873 MW7,787 MW
23 Oct, 19:007,716 MW7,714 MW
23 Oct, 20:007,413 MW7,380 MW
23 Oct, 21:006,845 MW6,889 MW
23 Oct, 22:006,351 MW6,474 MW
23 Oct, 23:006,021 MW6,084 MW
24 Oct, 00:005,867 MW5,733 MW
24 Oct, 01:005,649 MW5,610 MW
24 Oct, 02:005,625 MW5,561 MW
24 Oct, 03:005,740 MW5,568 MW
24 Oct, 04:005,727 MW5,617 MW
24 Oct, 05:005,810 MW5,731 MW
24 Oct, 06:005,912 MW6,009 MW
24 Oct, 07:006,295 MW6,365 MW
24 Oct, 08:006,636 MW6,780 MW
24 Oct, 09:007,179 MW7,240 MW
24 Oct, 10:007,724 MW7,588 MW
24 Oct, 11:007,969 MW7,837 MW
24 Oct, 12:007,892 MW7,744 MW
24 Oct, 13:007,729 MW7,618 MW
24 Oct, 14:007,265 MW7,292 MW
24 Oct, 15:006,941 MW7,075 MW
24 Oct, 16:006,835 MW6,869 MW
24 Oct, 17:006,690 MW6,733 MW
24 Oct, 18:006,756 MW6,939 MW
24 Oct, 19:006,711 MW6,878 MW
24 Oct, 20:006,605 MW6,632 MW
24 Oct, 21:006,338 MW6,314 MW
24 Oct, 22:006,175 MW6,151 MW
24 Oct, 23:006,018 MW5,875 MW
25 Oct, 00:005,631 MW5,560 MW
25 Oct, 01:005,524 MW5,445 MW
25 Oct, 02:005,525 MW5,407 MW
25 Oct, 02:005,308 MW5,398 MW
25 Oct, 03:005,469 MW5,387 MW
25 Oct, 04:005,575 MW5,433 MW
25 Oct, 05:005,764 MW5,457 MW
25 Oct, 06:005,993 MW5,678 MW
25 Oct, 07:006,386 MW6,004 MW
25 Oct, 08:006,889 MW6,454 MW
25 Oct, 09:007,244 MW6,986 MW
25 Oct, 10:007,504 MW7,386 MW
25 Oct, 11:007,693 MW7,655 MW
25 Oct, 12:007,622 MW7,535 MW
25 Oct, 13:007,413 MW7,474 MW
25 Oct, 14:007,401 MW7,240 MW
25 Oct, 15:007,260 MW7,125 MW
25 Oct, 16:007,242 MW7,042 MW
25 Oct, 17:007,343 MW7,183 MW
25 Oct, 18:007,233 MW7,186 MW
25 Oct, 19:007,144 MW7,142 MW
25 Oct, 20:006,799 MW6,926 MW
25 Oct, 21:006,539 MW6,630 MW
25 Oct, 22:006,361 MW6,493 MW
25 Oct, 23:006,262 MW6,227 MW
26 Oct, 00:006,095 MW6,078 MW
26 Oct, 01:006,047 MW6,102 MW
26 Oct, 02:005,905 MW5,954 MW
26 Oct, 03:006,059 MW5,901 MW
26 Oct, 04:006,284 MW6,058 MW
26 Oct, 05:006,761 MW6,668 MW
26 Oct, 06:007,740 MW7,867 MW
26 Oct, 07:008,247 MW8,301 MW
26 Oct, 08:008,537 MW8,528 MW
26 Oct, 09:008,820 MW8,713 MW
26 Oct, 10:008,849 MW8,757 MW
26 Oct, 11:008,829 MW8,805 MW
26 Oct, 12:008,787 MW8,830 MW
26 Oct, 13:008,868 MW8,712 MW
26 Oct, 14:008,386 MW8,355 MW
26 Oct, 15:008,144 MW8,150 MW
26 Oct, 16:007,980 MW8,028 MW
26 Oct, 17:008,110 MW8,281 MW
26 Oct, 18:008,118 MW8,184 MW
26 Oct, 19:008,197 MW8,178 MW
26 Oct, 20:007,841 MW7,884 MW
26 Oct, 21:007,369 MW7,468 MW
26 Oct, 22:007,051 MW7,087 MW
26 Oct, 23:006,657 MW6,701 MW
27 Oct, 00:006,494 MW6,536 MW
27 Oct, 01:006,538 MW6,546 MW
27 Oct, 02:006,488 MW6,431 MW
27 Oct, 03:006,481 MW6,419 MW
27 Oct, 04:006,570 MW6,605 MW
27 Oct, 05:007,148 MW7,198 MW
27 Oct, 06:008,142 MW8,311 MW
27 Oct, 07:008,633 MW8,735 MW
27 Oct, 08:008,896 MW8,894 MW
27 Oct, 09:009,068 MW9,029 MW
27 Oct, 10:008,859 MW9,001 MW
27 Oct, 11:008,971 MW8,986 MW
27 Oct, 12:008,915 MW8,989 MW
27 Oct, 13:008,648 MW8,812 MW
27 Oct, 14:008,237 MW8,414 MW
27 Oct, 15:007,912 MW8,160 MW
27 Oct, 16:007,792 MW8,069 MW
27 Oct, 17:008,107 MW8,346 MW
27 Oct, 18:008,021 MW8,223 MW
27 Oct, 19:008,036 MW8,237 MW
27 Oct, 20:007,693 MW7,946 MW
27 Oct, 21:007,343 MW7,518 MW
27 Oct, 22:006,939 MW7,137 MW
27 Oct, 23:006,572 MW6,783 MW
28 Oct, 00:006,105 MW6,163 MW
28 Oct, 01:005,992 MW6,095 MW
28 Oct, 02:006,096 MW6,050 MW
28 Oct, 03:006,135 MW6,046 MW
28 Oct, 04:006,254 MW6,158 MW
28 Oct, 05:006,412 MW6,407 MW
28 Oct, 06:006,675 MW6,989 MW
28 Oct, 07:007,026 MW7,264 MW
28 Oct, 08:007,450 MW7,678 MW
28 Oct, 09:007,834 MW8,023 MW
28 Oct, 10:008,036 MW8,166 MW
28 Oct, 11:008,119 MW8,221 MW
28 Oct, 12:008,101 MW8,099 MW
28 Oct, 13:007,913 MW7,932 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Czechia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cz/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Czechia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cz/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cz_2026,
  title = {{Czechia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cz/}
}

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