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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 30 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vienna).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Austria was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026, and 85% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Austria came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 162 MW, against average demand of 6,423 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 35% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 30 September to 28 October 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-1.4%
Hours within 5%85%
Worst miss920 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-92 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 920 MW (14.3%) too low at 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 5,534 MW, reported 6,454 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Austria day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 21 Oct, 14:0022 Oct, 14:0023 Oct, 14:0024 Oct, 14:0025 Oct, 13:0026 Oct, 13:0027 Oct, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Austria over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 14:007,626 MW6,792 MW
21 Oct, 15:007,656 MW6,923 MW
21 Oct, 16:007,780 MW7,281 MW
21 Oct, 17:007,891 MW7,692 MW
21 Oct, 18:007,874 MW7,829 MW
21 Oct, 19:007,642 MW7,742 MW
21 Oct, 20:007,239 MW7,384 MW
21 Oct, 21:006,756 MW6,853 MW
21 Oct, 22:006,477 MW6,490 MW
21 Oct, 23:006,059 MW6,024 MW
22 Oct, 00:005,805 MW5,698 MW
22 Oct, 01:005,620 MW5,455 MW
22 Oct, 02:005,548 MW5,387 MW
22 Oct, 03:005,515 MW5,354 MW
22 Oct, 04:005,692 MW5,572 MW
22 Oct, 05:006,370 MW6,240 MW
22 Oct, 06:007,420 MW7,391 MW
22 Oct, 07:008,118 MW8,041 MW
22 Oct, 08:008,351 MW8,147 MW
22 Oct, 09:008,243 MW7,966 MW
22 Oct, 10:008,173 MW7,764 MW
22 Oct, 11:007,930 MW7,482 MW
22 Oct, 12:007,583 MW7,078 MW
22 Oct, 13:007,438 MW6,855 MW
22 Oct, 14:007,195 MW6,783 MW
22 Oct, 15:007,326 MW7,011 MW
22 Oct, 16:007,594 MW7,386 MW
22 Oct, 17:007,845 MW7,724 MW
22 Oct, 18:007,945 MW7,812 MW
22 Oct, 19:007,804 MW7,715 MW
22 Oct, 20:007,405 MW7,359 MW
22 Oct, 21:006,897 MW6,821 MW
22 Oct, 22:006,605 MW6,462 MW
22 Oct, 23:006,186 MW6,013 MW
23 Oct, 00:005,877 MW5,726 MW
23 Oct, 01:005,616 MW5,467 MW
23 Oct, 02:005,529 MW5,416 MW
23 Oct, 03:005,485 MW5,352 MW
23 Oct, 04:005,648 MW5,535 MW
23 Oct, 05:006,281 MW6,216 MW
23 Oct, 06:007,407 MW7,311 MW
23 Oct, 07:008,055 MW7,952 MW
23 Oct, 08:008,207 MW8,058 MW
23 Oct, 09:008,006 MW7,973 MW
23 Oct, 10:007,801 MW7,756 MW
23 Oct, 11:007,596 MW7,509 MW
23 Oct, 12:007,368 MW7,184 MW
23 Oct, 13:007,150 MW6,981 MW
23 Oct, 14:007,015 MW6,834 MW
23 Oct, 15:007,144 MW6,864 MW
23 Oct, 16:007,295 MW7,179 MW
23 Oct, 17:007,624 MW7,566 MW
23 Oct, 18:007,743 MW7,736 MW
23 Oct, 19:007,565 MW7,621 MW
23 Oct, 20:007,170 MW7,190 MW
23 Oct, 21:006,666 MW6,661 MW
23 Oct, 22:006,399 MW6,332 MW
23 Oct, 23:006,041 MW5,895 MW
24 Oct, 00:005,696 MW5,556 MW
24 Oct, 01:005,339 MW5,270 MW
24 Oct, 02:005,212 MW5,147 MW
24 Oct, 03:005,109 MW5,055 MW
24 Oct, 04:005,138 MW5,089 MW
24 Oct, 05:005,382 MW5,344 MW
24 Oct, 06:005,828 MW5,741 MW
24 Oct, 07:006,215 MW6,110 MW
24 Oct, 08:006,437 MW6,388 MW
24 Oct, 09:006,471 MW6,491 MW
24 Oct, 10:006,551 MW6,478 MW
24 Oct, 11:006,396 MW6,331 MW
24 Oct, 12:006,123 MW6,006 MW
24 Oct, 13:006,039 MW5,827 MW
24 Oct, 14:006,012 MW5,812 MW
24 Oct, 15:006,196 MW5,861 MW
24 Oct, 16:006,359 MW6,140 MW
24 Oct, 17:006,656 MW6,412 MW
24 Oct, 18:006,747 MW6,573 MW
24 Oct, 19:006,656 MW6,502 MW
24 Oct, 20:006,376 MW6,242 MW
24 Oct, 21:005,986 MW5,878 MW
24 Oct, 22:005,894 MW5,726 MW
24 Oct, 23:005,581 MW5,337 MW
25 Oct, 00:005,137 MW5,075 MW
25 Oct, 01:004,885 MW4,813 MW
25 Oct, 02:004,778 MW4,707 MW
25 Oct, 02:004,726 MW4,707 MW
25 Oct, 03:004,733 MW4,616 MW
25 Oct, 04:004,782 MW4,644 MW
25 Oct, 05:004,988 MW4,824 MW
25 Oct, 06:005,248 MW5,098 MW
25 Oct, 07:005,524 MW5,333 MW
25 Oct, 08:005,807 MW5,508 MW
25 Oct, 09:005,936 MW5,609 MW
25 Oct, 10:005,945 MW5,652 MW
25 Oct, 11:005,939 MW5,563 MW
25 Oct, 12:005,870 MW5,319 MW
25 Oct, 13:005,699 MW5,177 MW
25 Oct, 14:005,585 MW5,045 MW
25 Oct, 15:005,763 MW5,130 MW
25 Oct, 16:006,116 MW5,492 MW
25 Oct, 17:006,430 MW5,978 MW
25 Oct, 18:006,443 MW6,353 MW
25 Oct, 19:006,302 MW6,361 MW
25 Oct, 20:006,071 MW6,126 MW
25 Oct, 21:005,796 MW5,824 MW
25 Oct, 22:005,698 MW5,736 MW
25 Oct, 23:005,429 MW5,438 MW
26 Oct, 00:005,130 MW5,062 MW
26 Oct, 01:004,916 MW4,796 MW
26 Oct, 02:004,837 MW4,689 MW
26 Oct, 03:004,823 MW4,596 MW
26 Oct, 04:004,847 MW4,624 MW
26 Oct, 05:005,061 MW4,810 MW
26 Oct, 06:005,387 MW5,081 MW
26 Oct, 07:005,650 MW5,314 MW
26 Oct, 08:005,795 MW5,498 MW
26 Oct, 09:005,849 MW5,609 MW
26 Oct, 10:005,884 MW5,650 MW
26 Oct, 11:005,843 MW5,556 MW
26 Oct, 12:005,731 MW5,311 MW
26 Oct, 13:005,634 MW5,170 MW
26 Oct, 14:005,510 MW5,043 MW
26 Oct, 15:005,612 MW5,133 MW
26 Oct, 16:006,015 MW5,494 MW
26 Oct, 17:006,504 MW5,978 MW
26 Oct, 18:006,739 MW6,347 MW
26 Oct, 19:006,598 MW6,353 MW
26 Oct, 20:006,322 MW6,123 MW
26 Oct, 21:006,029 MW5,823 MW
26 Oct, 22:005,933 MW5,730 MW
26 Oct, 23:005,631 MW5,428 MW
27 Oct, 00:005,515 MW5,669 MW
27 Oct, 01:005,310 MW5,418 MW
27 Oct, 02:005,277 MW5,342 MW
27 Oct, 03:005,333 MW5,305 MW
27 Oct, 04:005,474 MW5,502 MW
27 Oct, 05:006,127 MW6,193 MW
27 Oct, 06:007,408 MW7,356 MW
27 Oct, 07:008,097 MW8,046 MW
27 Oct, 08:008,247 MW8,222 MW
27 Oct, 09:007,939 MW8,113 MW
27 Oct, 10:007,767 MW7,977 MW
27 Oct, 11:007,467 MW7,766 MW
27 Oct, 12:007,139 MW7,373 MW
27 Oct, 13:007,068 MW7,162 MW
27 Oct, 14:007,209 MW7,097 MW
27 Oct, 15:007,475 MW7,243 MW
27 Oct, 16:007,801 MW7,542 MW
27 Oct, 17:008,079 MW7,839 MW
27 Oct, 18:008,131 MW7,913 MW
27 Oct, 19:007,898 MW7,774 MW
27 Oct, 20:007,481 MW7,393 MW
27 Oct, 21:006,965 MW6,880 MW
27 Oct, 22:006,635 MW6,557 MW
27 Oct, 23:006,172 MW6,088 MW
28 Oct, 00:005,742 MW5,674 MW
28 Oct, 01:005,519 MW5,421 MW
28 Oct, 02:005,437 MW5,343 MW
28 Oct, 03:005,437 MW5,308 MW
28 Oct, 04:005,615 MW5,503 MW
28 Oct, 05:006,213 MW6,191 MW
28 Oct, 06:007,404 MW7,354 MW
28 Oct, 07:008,099 MW8,043 MW
28 Oct, 08:008,198 MW8,221 MW
28 Oct, 09:008,060 MW8,113 MW
28 Oct, 10:008,010 MW7,978 MW
28 Oct, 11:007,994 MW7,768 MW
28 Oct, 12:007,837 MW7,375 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 685 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_at_2026,
  title = {{Austria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/at/}
}

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