CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CPLW was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.4%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CPLW came 13 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 13 MW, against average demand of 475 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026

Average error2.6%

Bias+0.4%

Hours within 5%86%

Worst miss69 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 69 MW (13.8%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 568 MW, reported 499 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CPLW over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:00	613 MW	578 MW
21 Oct, 09:00	591 MW	557 MW
21 Oct, 10:00	521 MW	523 MW
21 Oct, 11:00	510 MW	494 MW
21 Oct, 12:00	485 MW	474 MW
21 Oct, 13:00	473 MW	463 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	466 MW	459 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	470 MW	467 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	481 MW	482 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	500 MW	497 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	519 MW	512 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	538 MW	519 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	525 MW	514 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	502 MW	489 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	466 MW	458 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	438 MW	430 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	418 MW	435 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	416 MW	427 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	417 MW	428 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	424 MW	434 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	445 MW	452 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	483 MW	495 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	555 MW	551 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	601 MW	593 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	612 MW	598 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	582 MW	576 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	546 MW	541 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	510 MW	507 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	482 MW	483 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	473 MW	469 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	468 MW	463 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	465 MW	466 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	476 MW	480 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	495 MW	496 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	515 MW	514 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	533 MW	524 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	526 MW	522 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	500 MW	498 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	473 MW	469 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	439 MW	445 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	419 MW	429 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	417 MW	422 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	414 MW	422 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	423 MW	428 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	442 MW	446 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	482 MW	489 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	547 MW	544 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	591 MW	588 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	610 MW	597 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	593 MW	577 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	550 MW	539 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	512 MW	501 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	489 MW	473 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	475 MW	455 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	457 MW	443 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	462 MW	443 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	470 MW	455 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	490 MW	473 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	497 MW	490 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	511 MW	502 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	500 MW	500 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	488 MW	485 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	467 MW	467 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	443 MW	447 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	424 MW	442 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	414 MW	433 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	419 MW	432 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	419 MW	436 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	430 MW	447 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	452 MW	469 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	478 MW	504 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	517 MW	544 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	553 MW	574 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	559 MW	574 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	535 MW	547 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	503 MW	506 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	468 MW	471 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	450 MW	444 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	437 MW	431 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	439 MW	428 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	454 MW	439 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	471 MW	458 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	484 MW	483 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	498 MW	499 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	490 MW	500 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	477 MW	486 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	456 MW	469 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	434 MW	453 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	415 MW	439 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	406 MW	431 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	408 MW	431 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	412 MW	436 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	424 MW	448 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	445 MW	468 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	475 MW	499 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	517 MW	539 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	561 MW	567 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	555 MW	563 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	520 MW	527 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	488 MW	485 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	467 MW	455 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	453 MW	435 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	442 MW	424 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	444 MW	424 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	462 MW	439 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	481 MW	463 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	502 MW	490 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	518 MW	508 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	512 MW	509 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	490 MW	492 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	457 MW	470 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	429 MW	445 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	416 MW	429 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	416 MW	421 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	418 MW	424 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	430 MW	434 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	450 MW	453 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	492 MW	498 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	561 MW	557 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	605 MW	603 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	624 MW	610 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	601 MW	588 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	562 MW	548 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	523 MW	511 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	494 MW	485 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	485 MW	469 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	472 MW	461 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	471 MW	465 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	489 MW	480 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	509 MW	499 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	527 MW	518 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	541 MW	528 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	526 MW	522 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	498 MW	495 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	466 MW	464 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	430 MW	436 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	417 MW	423 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	410 MW	412 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	411 MW	410 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	420 MW	415 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	442 MW	430 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	480 MW	471 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	553 MW	526 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	589 MW	570 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	610 MW	579 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	589 MW	559 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	550 MW	526 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	511 MW	496 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	487 MW	476 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	473 MW	465 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	472 MW	462 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	471 MW	467 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	489 MW	480 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	507 MW	497 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	527 MW	514 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	540 MW	521 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	524 MW	515 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	491 MW	489 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	463 MW	459 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	429 MW	432 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	415 MW	415 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	408 MW	405 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	410 MW	403 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	421 MW	407 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	440 MW	423 MW
28 Oct, 05:00	482 MW	463 MW
28 Oct, 06:00	551 MW	516 MW
28 Oct, 07:00	593 MW	556 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cplw_2026,
  title = {{CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cplw/

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CPLW Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related