CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 26 MW (9.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for CHPD was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 26 MW (9.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CHPD came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 5 MW, against average demand of 196 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026

Average error2.6%

Bias+0.2%

Hours within 5%88%

Worst miss26 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 26 MW (9.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 242 MW, reported 268 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CHPD over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-10-28

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:00	230 MW	212 MW
21 Oct, 06:00	252 MW	229 MW
21 Oct, 07:00	268 MW	242 MW
21 Oct, 08:00	260 MW	244 MW
21 Oct, 09:00	243 MW	233 MW
21 Oct, 10:00	224 MW	218 MW
21 Oct, 11:00	214 MW	207 MW
21 Oct, 12:00	204 MW	198 MW
21 Oct, 13:00	196 MW	192 MW
21 Oct, 14:00	188 MW	188 MW
21 Oct, 15:00	188 MW	186 MW
21 Oct, 16:00	190 MW	189 MW
21 Oct, 17:00	198 MW	194 MW
21 Oct, 18:00	204 MW	197 MW
21 Oct, 19:00	207 MW	201 MW
21 Oct, 20:00	204 MW	199 MW
21 Oct, 21:00	201 MW	193 MW
21 Oct, 22:00	191 MW	185 MW
21 Oct, 23:00	186 MW	178 MW
22 Oct, 00:00	187 MW	182 MW
22 Oct, 01:00	184 MW	180 MW
22 Oct, 02:00	192 MW	180 MW
22 Oct, 03:00	192 MW	185 MW
22 Oct, 04:00	206 MW	196 MW
22 Oct, 05:00	223 MW	212 MW
22 Oct, 06:00	250 MW	230 MW
22 Oct, 07:00	263 MW	241 MW
22 Oct, 08:00	258 MW	250 MW
22 Oct, 09:00	243 MW	239 MW
22 Oct, 10:00	226 MW	226 MW
22 Oct, 11:00	213 MW	214 MW
22 Oct, 12:00	209 MW	204 MW
22 Oct, 13:00	203 MW	197 MW
22 Oct, 14:00	198 MW	193 MW
22 Oct, 15:00	199 MW	187 MW
22 Oct, 16:00	202 MW	190 MW
22 Oct, 17:00	208 MW	195 MW
22 Oct, 18:00	211 MW	200 MW
22 Oct, 19:00	212 MW	202 MW
22 Oct, 20:00	205 MW	200 MW
22 Oct, 21:00	200 MW	195 MW
22 Oct, 22:00	185 MW	188 MW
22 Oct, 23:00	182 MW	181 MW
23 Oct, 00:00	178 MW	175 MW
23 Oct, 01:00	177 MW	173 MW
23 Oct, 02:00	177 MW	175 MW
23 Oct, 03:00	180 MW	180 MW
23 Oct, 04:00	183 MW	191 MW
23 Oct, 05:00	207 MW	210 MW
23 Oct, 06:00	227 MW	228 MW
23 Oct, 07:00	237 MW	240 MW
23 Oct, 08:00	235 MW	246 MW
23 Oct, 09:00	221 MW	238 MW
23 Oct, 10:00	215 MW	229 MW
23 Oct, 11:00	203 MW	221 MW
23 Oct, 12:00	199 MW	212 MW
23 Oct, 13:00	193 MW	205 MW
23 Oct, 14:00	186 MW	201 MW
23 Oct, 15:00	186 MW	194 MW
23 Oct, 16:00	189 MW	196 MW
23 Oct, 17:00	198 MW	200 MW
23 Oct, 18:00	200 MW	206 MW
23 Oct, 19:00	201 MW	209 MW
23 Oct, 20:00	205 MW	210 MW
23 Oct, 21:00	199 MW	207 MW
23 Oct, 22:00	194 MW	201 MW
23 Oct, 23:00	193 MW	196 MW
24 Oct, 00:00	193 MW	189 MW
24 Oct, 01:00	197 MW	190 MW
24 Oct, 02:00	199 MW	193 MW
24 Oct, 03:00	205 MW	199 MW
24 Oct, 04:00	217 MW	209 MW
24 Oct, 05:00	234 MW	225 MW
24 Oct, 06:00	249 MW	246 MW
24 Oct, 07:00	266 MW	257 MW
24 Oct, 08:00	271 MW	259 MW
24 Oct, 09:00	256 MW	250 MW
24 Oct, 10:00	245 MW	238 MW
24 Oct, 11:00	238 MW	231 MW
24 Oct, 12:00	231 MW	222 MW
24 Oct, 13:00	225 MW	212 MW
24 Oct, 14:00	218 MW	206 MW
24 Oct, 15:00	210 MW	202 MW
24 Oct, 16:00	217 MW	203 MW
24 Oct, 17:00	220 MW	208 MW
24 Oct, 18:00	225 MW	215 MW
24 Oct, 19:00	225 MW	217 MW
24 Oct, 20:00	223 MW	216 MW
24 Oct, 21:00	215 MW	212 MW
24 Oct, 22:00	210 MW	206 MW
24 Oct, 23:00	207 MW	200 MW
25 Oct, 00:00	204 MW	204 MW
25 Oct, 01:00	202 MW	204 MW
25 Oct, 02:00	209 MW	205 MW
25 Oct, 03:00	206 MW	207 MW
25 Oct, 04:00	215 MW	213 MW
25 Oct, 05:00	227 MW	228 MW
25 Oct, 06:00	240 MW	244 MW
25 Oct, 07:00	251 MW	256 MW
25 Oct, 08:00	255 MW	261 MW
25 Oct, 09:00	258 MW	256 MW
25 Oct, 10:00	257 MW	246 MW
25 Oct, 11:00	249 MW	240 MW
25 Oct, 12:00	242 MW	231 MW
25 Oct, 13:00	234 MW	222 MW
25 Oct, 14:00	230 MW	215 MW
25 Oct, 15:00	227 MW	209 MW
25 Oct, 16:00	234 MW	210 MW
25 Oct, 17:00	235 MW	218 MW
25 Oct, 18:00	241 MW	224 MW
25 Oct, 19:00	234 MW	226 MW
25 Oct, 20:00	229 MW	223 MW
25 Oct, 21:00	220 MW	215 MW
25 Oct, 22:00	206 MW	205 MW
25 Oct, 23:00	199 MW	198 MW
26 Oct, 00:00	195 MW	201 MW
26 Oct, 01:00	193 MW	198 MW
26 Oct, 02:00	193 MW	196 MW
26 Oct, 03:00	195 MW	198 MW
26 Oct, 04:00	203 MW	208 MW
26 Oct, 05:00	221 MW	224 MW
26 Oct, 06:00	241 MW	241 MW
26 Oct, 07:00	249 MW	256 MW
26 Oct, 08:00	253 MW	258 MW
26 Oct, 09:00	247 MW	252 MW
26 Oct, 10:00	243 MW	248 MW
26 Oct, 11:00	234 MW	240 MW
26 Oct, 12:00	224 MW	232 MW
26 Oct, 13:00	220 MW	222 MW
26 Oct, 14:00	211 MW	217 MW
26 Oct, 15:00	207 MW	214 MW
26 Oct, 16:00	213 MW	217 MW
26 Oct, 17:00	218 MW	222 MW
26 Oct, 18:00	224 MW	227 MW
26 Oct, 19:00	225 MW	228 MW
26 Oct, 20:00	220 MW	225 MW
26 Oct, 21:00	213 MW	218 MW
26 Oct, 22:00	202 MW	210 MW
26 Oct, 23:00	197 MW	201 MW
27 Oct, 00:00	196 MW	196 MW
27 Oct, 01:00	196 MW	194 MW
27 Oct, 02:00	201 MW	195 MW
27 Oct, 03:00	202 MW	201 MW
27 Oct, 04:00	214 MW	213 MW
27 Oct, 05:00	235 MW	233 MW
27 Oct, 06:00	255 MW	252 MW
27 Oct, 07:00	266 MW	265 MW
27 Oct, 08:00	264 MW	263 MW
27 Oct, 09:00	254 MW	257 MW
27 Oct, 10:00	244 MW	244 MW
27 Oct, 11:00	235 MW	233 MW
27 Oct, 12:00	222 MW	225 MW
27 Oct, 13:00	208 MW	216 MW
27 Oct, 14:00	200 MW	210 MW
27 Oct, 15:00	196 MW	208 MW
27 Oct, 16:00	201 MW	213 MW
27 Oct, 17:00	208 MW	220 MW
27 Oct, 18:00	217 MW	227 MW
27 Oct, 19:00	214 MW	228 MW
27 Oct, 20:00	213 MW	226 MW
27 Oct, 21:00	208 MW	218 MW
27 Oct, 22:00	198 MW	211 MW
27 Oct, 23:00	193 MW	203 MW
28 Oct, 00:00	195 MW	194 MW
28 Oct, 01:00	194 MW	194 MW
28 Oct, 02:00	195 MW	195 MW
28 Oct, 03:00	199 MW	200 MW
28 Oct, 04:00	205 MW	210 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_chpd_2026,
  title = {{CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/chpd/

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CHPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related