DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for DOPD was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
- Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DOPD came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 8 MW, against average demand of 257 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 76% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026Average error3.3%
Bias+2.5%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss27 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 27 MW (11.3%) too high at 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 265 MW, reported 238 MW.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 05:00 | 278 MW | 274 MW |
| 21 Oct, 06:00 | 303 MW | 296 MW |
| 21 Oct, 07:00 | 314 MW | 307 MW |
| 21 Oct, 08:00 | 304 MW | 300 MW |
| 21 Oct, 09:00 | 290 MW | 290 MW |
| 21 Oct, 10:00 | 279 MW | 280 MW |
| 21 Oct, 11:00 | 265 MW | 272 MW |
| 21 Oct, 12:00 | 260 MW | 266 MW |
| 21 Oct, 13:00 | 249 MW | 261 MW |
| 21 Oct, 14:00 | 252 MW | 258 MW |
| 21 Oct, 15:00 | 249 MW | 258 MW |
| 21 Oct, 16:00 | 252 MW | 261 MW |
| 21 Oct, 17:00 | 259 MW | 265 MW |
| 21 Oct, 18:00 | 264 MW | 270 MW |
| 21 Oct, 19:00 | 264 MW | 272 MW |
| 21 Oct, 20:00 | 260 MW | 271 MW |
| 21 Oct, 21:00 | 253 MW | 265 MW |
| 21 Oct, 22:00 | 243 MW | 257 MW |
| 21 Oct, 23:00 | 237 MW | 244 MW |
| 22 Oct, 00:00 | 235 MW | 246 MW |
| 22 Oct, 01:00 | 235 MW | 247 MW |
| 22 Oct, 02:00 | 238 MW | 250 MW |
| 22 Oct, 03:00 | 245 MW | 256 MW |
| 22 Oct, 04:00 | 253 MW | 265 MW |
| 22 Oct, 05:00 | 270 MW | 279 MW |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 | 295 MW | 299 MW |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 | 305 MW | 309 MW |
| 22 Oct, 08:00 | 301 MW | 300 MW |
| 22 Oct, 09:00 | 287 MW | 288 MW |
| 22 Oct, 10:00 | 277 MW | 277 MW |
| 22 Oct, 11:00 | 263 MW | 268 MW |
| 22 Oct, 12:00 | 256 MW | 262 MW |
| 22 Oct, 13:00 | 255 MW | 258 MW |
| 22 Oct, 14:00 | 253 MW | 255 MW |
| 22 Oct, 15:00 | 257 MW | 255 MW |
| 22 Oct, 16:00 | 255 MW | 258 MW |
| 22 Oct, 17:00 | 260 MW | 263 MW |
| 22 Oct, 18:00 | 265 MW | 269 MW |
| 22 Oct, 19:00 | 264 MW | 272 MW |
| 22 Oct, 20:00 | 262 MW | 270 MW |
| 22 Oct, 21:00 | 252 MW | 264 MW |
| 22 Oct, 22:00 | 240 MW | 256 MW |
| 22 Oct, 23:00 | 235 MW | 244 MW |
| 23 Oct, 00:00 | 230 MW | 242 MW |
| 23 Oct, 01:00 | 229 MW | 242 MW |
| 23 Oct, 02:00 | 233 MW | 246 MW |
| 23 Oct, 03:00 | 234 MW | 253 MW |
| 23 Oct, 04:00 | 236 MW | 263 MW |
| 23 Oct, 05:00 | 256 MW | 279 MW |
| 23 Oct, 06:00 | 275 MW | 298 MW |
| 23 Oct, 07:00 | 282 MW | 309 MW |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 | 279 MW | 301 MW |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 | 268 MW | 293 MW |
| 23 Oct, 10:00 | 264 MW | 284 MW |
| 23 Oct, 11:00 | 259 MW | 275 MW |
| 23 Oct, 12:00 | 252 MW | 269 MW |
| 23 Oct, 13:00 | 249 MW | 265 MW |
| 23 Oct, 14:00 | 245 MW | 262 MW |
| 23 Oct, 15:00 | 243 MW | 263 MW |
| 23 Oct, 16:00 | 247 MW | 267 MW |
| 23 Oct, 17:00 | 257 MW | 273 MW |
| 23 Oct, 18:00 | 256 MW | 278 MW |
| 23 Oct, 19:00 | 258 MW | 281 MW |
| 23 Oct, 20:00 | 256 MW | 278 MW |
| 23 Oct, 21:00 | 252 MW | 270 MW |
| 23 Oct, 22:00 | 246 MW | 260 MW |
| 23 Oct, 23:00 | 249 MW | 248 MW |
| 24 Oct, 00:00 | 245 MW | 246 MW |
| 24 Oct, 01:00 | 244 MW | 247 MW |
| 24 Oct, 02:00 | 251 MW | 251 MW |
| 24 Oct, 03:00 | 254 MW | 258 MW |
| 24 Oct, 04:00 | 265 MW | 268 MW |
| 24 Oct, 05:00 | 277 MW | 282 MW |
| 24 Oct, 06:00 | 290 MW | 301 MW |
| 24 Oct, 07:00 | 302 MW | 313 MW |
| 24 Oct, 08:00 | 305 MW | 309 MW |
| 24 Oct, 09:00 | 300 MW | 301 MW |
| 24 Oct, 10:00 | 290 MW | 293 MW |
| 24 Oct, 11:00 | 290 MW | 285 MW |
| 24 Oct, 12:00 | 280 MW | 278 MW |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 | 271 MW | 274 MW |
| 24 Oct, 14:00 | 268 MW | 272 MW |
| 24 Oct, 15:00 | 269 MW | 273 MW |
| 24 Oct, 16:00 | 266 MW | 276 MW |
| 24 Oct, 17:00 | 265 MW | 280 MW |
| 24 Oct, 18:00 | 274 MW | 283 MW |
| 24 Oct, 19:00 | 274 MW | 284 MW |
| 24 Oct, 20:00 | 269 MW | 281 MW |
| 24 Oct, 21:00 | 266 MW | 273 MW |
| 24 Oct, 22:00 | 262 MW | 262 MW |
| 24 Oct, 23:00 | 253 MW | 250 MW |
| 25 Oct, 00:00 | 251 MW | 245 MW |
| 25 Oct, 01:00 | 254 MW | 243 MW |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 | 252 MW | 245 MW |
| 25 Oct, 03:00 | 256 MW | 248 MW |
| 25 Oct, 04:00 | 259 MW | 255 MW |
| 25 Oct, 05:00 | 270 MW | 265 MW |
| 25 Oct, 06:00 | 278 MW | 279 MW |
| 25 Oct, 07:00 | 289 MW | 290 MW |
| 25 Oct, 08:00 | 297 MW | 290 MW |
| 25 Oct, 09:00 | 292 MW | 286 MW |
| 25 Oct, 10:00 | 291 MW | 280 MW |
| 25 Oct, 11:00 | 290 MW | 274 MW |
| 25 Oct, 12:00 | 282 MW | 267 MW |
| 25 Oct, 13:00 | 274 MW | 264 MW |
| 25 Oct, 14:00 | 271 MW | 263 MW |
| 25 Oct, 15:00 | 272 MW | 265 MW |
| 25 Oct, 16:00 | 275 MW | 268 MW |
| 25 Oct, 17:00 | 279 MW | 270 MW |
| 25 Oct, 18:00 | 281 MW | 272 MW |
| 25 Oct, 19:00 | 278 MW | 271 MW |
| 25 Oct, 20:00 | 277 MW | 268 MW |
| 25 Oct, 21:00 | 262 MW | 263 MW |
| 25 Oct, 22:00 | 258 MW | 256 MW |
| 25 Oct, 23:00 | 248 MW | 248 MW |
| 26 Oct, 00:00 | 245 MW | 245 MW |
| 26 Oct, 01:00 | 246 MW | 244 MW |
| 26 Oct, 02:00 | 243 MW | 246 MW |
| 26 Oct, 03:00 | 245 MW | 251 MW |
| 26 Oct, 04:00 | 256 MW | 261 MW |
| 26 Oct, 05:00 | 271 MW | 276 MW |
| 26 Oct, 06:00 | 293 MW | 293 MW |
| 26 Oct, 07:00 | 295 MW | 307 MW |
| 26 Oct, 08:00 | 302 MW | 303 MW |
| 26 Oct, 09:00 | 293 MW | 297 MW |
| 26 Oct, 10:00 | 294 MW | 289 MW |
| 26 Oct, 11:00 | 284 MW | 280 MW |
| 26 Oct, 12:00 | 272 MW | 273 MW |
| 26 Oct, 13:00 | 264 MW | 269 MW |
| 26 Oct, 14:00 | 263 MW | 269 MW |
| 26 Oct, 15:00 | 264 MW | 272 MW |
| 26 Oct, 16:00 | 263 MW | 276 MW |
| 26 Oct, 17:00 | 273 MW | 279 MW |
| 26 Oct, 18:00 | 282 MW | 281 MW |
| 26 Oct, 19:00 | 275 MW | 280 MW |
| 26 Oct, 20:00 | 267 MW | 276 MW |
| 26 Oct, 21:00 | 262 MW | 271 MW |
| 26 Oct, 22:00 | 251 MW | 263 MW |
| 26 Oct, 23:00 | 246 MW | 254 MW |
| 27 Oct, 00:00 | 240 MW | 252 MW |
| 27 Oct, 01:00 | 240 MW | 251 MW |
| 27 Oct, 02:00 | 244 MW | 253 MW |
| 27 Oct, 03:00 | 244 MW | 259 MW |
| 27 Oct, 04:00 | 253 MW | 269 MW |
| 27 Oct, 05:00 | 271 MW | 284 MW |
| 27 Oct, 06:00 | 294 MW | 300 MW |
| 27 Oct, 07:00 | 301 MW | 312 MW |
| 27 Oct, 08:00 | 295 MW | 308 MW |
| 27 Oct, 09:00 | 291 MW | 300 MW |
| 27 Oct, 10:00 | 285 MW | 291 MW |
| 27 Oct, 11:00 | 274 MW | 282 MW |
| 27 Oct, 12:00 | 264 MW | 275 MW |
| 27 Oct, 13:00 | 254 MW | 270 MW |
| 27 Oct, 14:00 | 254 MW | 270 MW |
| 27 Oct, 15:00 | 249 MW | 273 MW |
| 27 Oct, 16:00 | 259 MW | 277 MW |
| 27 Oct, 17:00 | 266 MW | 280 MW |
| 27 Oct, 18:00 | 268 MW | 282 MW |
| 27 Oct, 19:00 | 271 MW | 281 MW |
| 27 Oct, 20:00 | 265 MW | 277 MW |
| 27 Oct, 21:00 | 261 MW | 272 MW |
| 27 Oct, 22:00 | 251 MW | 265 MW |
| 27 Oct, 23:00 | 244 MW | 256 MW |
| 28 Oct, 00:00 | 242 MW | 252 MW |
| 28 Oct, 01:00 | 246 MW | 251 MW |
| 28 Oct, 02:00 | 245 MW | 253 MW |
| 28 Oct, 03:00 | 250 MW | 259 MW |
| 28 Oct, 04:00 | 259 MW | 272 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dopd_2026,
title = {{DOPD Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dopd/
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