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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for AVA was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, AVA came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 18 MW, against average demand of 1,289 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 46% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

695 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.4%
Bias+0.0%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss179 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 179 MW (12.0%) too low at 12 Oct 2026, 07:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 1,313 MW, reported 1,492 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00)
AVA day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 21 Oct, 05:0022 Oct, 05:0023 Oct, 05:0024 Oct, 05:0025 Oct, 05:0026 Oct, 05:0027 Oct, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for AVA over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 05:001,293 MW1,276 MW
21 Oct, 06:001,454 MW1,426 MW
21 Oct, 07:001,519 MW1,499 MW
21 Oct, 08:001,519 MW1,492 MW
21 Oct, 09:001,476 MW1,467 MW
21 Oct, 10:001,427 MW1,434 MW
21 Oct, 11:001,398 MW1,411 MW
21 Oct, 12:001,386 MW1,395 MW
21 Oct, 13:001,351 MW1,380 MW
21 Oct, 14:001,326 MW1,362 MW
21 Oct, 15:001,307 MW1,355 MW
21 Oct, 16:001,337 MW1,368 MW
21 Oct, 17:001,369 MW1,404 MW
21 Oct, 18:001,405 MW1,430 MW
21 Oct, 19:001,390 MW1,429 MW
21 Oct, 20:001,356 MW1,384 MW
21 Oct, 21:001,307 MW1,324 MW
21 Oct, 22:001,241 MW1,238 MW
21 Oct, 23:001,191 MW1,168 MW
22 Oct, 00:001,139 MW1,115 MW
22 Oct, 01:001,127 MW1,116 MW
22 Oct, 02:001,117 MW1,111 MW
22 Oct, 03:001,134 MW1,125 MW
22 Oct, 04:001,179 MW1,170 MW
22 Oct, 05:001,299 MW1,290 MW
22 Oct, 06:001,426 MW1,437 MW
22 Oct, 07:001,521 MW1,507 MW
22 Oct, 08:001,514 MW1,504 MW
22 Oct, 09:001,481 MW1,477 MW
22 Oct, 10:001,435 MW1,445 MW
22 Oct, 11:001,416 MW1,423 MW
22 Oct, 12:001,389 MW1,409 MW
22 Oct, 13:001,380 MW1,390 MW
22 Oct, 14:001,365 MW1,373 MW
22 Oct, 15:001,361 MW1,364 MW
22 Oct, 16:001,383 MW1,375 MW
22 Oct, 17:001,424 MW1,404 MW
22 Oct, 18:001,442 MW1,424 MW
22 Oct, 19:001,414 MW1,414 MW
22 Oct, 20:001,374 MW1,373 MW
22 Oct, 21:001,299 MW1,309 MW
22 Oct, 22:001,223 MW1,231 MW
22 Oct, 23:001,163 MW1,165 MW
23 Oct, 00:001,120 MW1,125 MW
23 Oct, 01:001,084 MW1,096 MW
23 Oct, 02:001,071 MW1,086 MW
23 Oct, 03:001,077 MW1,090 MW
23 Oct, 04:001,097 MW1,124 MW
23 Oct, 05:001,190 MW1,222 MW
23 Oct, 06:001,314 MW1,344 MW
23 Oct, 07:001,392 MW1,428 MW
23 Oct, 08:001,432 MW1,450 MW
23 Oct, 09:001,422 MW1,448 MW
23 Oct, 10:001,408 MW1,430 MW
23 Oct, 11:001,396 MW1,422 MW
23 Oct, 12:001,366 MW1,412 MW
23 Oct, 13:001,359 MW1,396 MW
23 Oct, 14:001,339 MW1,380 MW
23 Oct, 15:001,330 MW1,368 MW
23 Oct, 16:001,341 MW1,379 MW
23 Oct, 17:001,377 MW1,409 MW
23 Oct, 18:001,422 MW1,421 MW
23 Oct, 19:001,399 MW1,409 MW
23 Oct, 20:001,376 MW1,379 MW
23 Oct, 21:001,329 MW1,334 MW
23 Oct, 22:001,279 MW1,277 MW
23 Oct, 23:001,220 MW1,224 MW
24 Oct, 00:001,198 MW1,179 MW
24 Oct, 01:001,182 MW1,173 MW
24 Oct, 02:001,173 MW1,171 MW
24 Oct, 03:001,187 MW1,182 MW
24 Oct, 04:001,221 MW1,205 MW
24 Oct, 05:001,267 MW1,264 MW
24 Oct, 06:001,340 MW1,338 MW
24 Oct, 07:001,424 MW1,406 MW
24 Oct, 08:001,462 MW1,440 MW
24 Oct, 09:001,460 MW1,432 MW
24 Oct, 10:001,424 MW1,397 MW
24 Oct, 11:001,384 MW1,363 MW
24 Oct, 12:001,341 MW1,322 MW
24 Oct, 13:001,326 MW1,298 MW
24 Oct, 14:001,301 MW1,279 MW
24 Oct, 15:001,302 MW1,282 MW
24 Oct, 16:001,316 MW1,298 MW
24 Oct, 17:001,367 MW1,337 MW
24 Oct, 18:001,400 MW1,371 MW
24 Oct, 19:001,384 MW1,373 MW
24 Oct, 20:001,350 MW1,351 MW
24 Oct, 21:001,305 MW1,313 MW
24 Oct, 22:001,245 MW1,258 MW
24 Oct, 23:001,201 MW1,206 MW
25 Oct, 00:001,147 MW1,154 MW
25 Oct, 01:001,144 MW1,155 MW
25 Oct, 02:001,134 MW1,115 MW
25 Oct, 03:001,131 MW1,119 MW
25 Oct, 04:001,153 MW1,146 MW
25 Oct, 05:001,191 MW1,190 MW
25 Oct, 06:001,262 MW1,260 MW
25 Oct, 07:001,334 MW1,334 MW
25 Oct, 08:001,381 MW1,386 MW
25 Oct, 09:001,392 MW1,400 MW
25 Oct, 10:001,381 MW1,382 MW
25 Oct, 11:001,359 MW1,366 MW
25 Oct, 12:001,357 MW1,355 MW
25 Oct, 13:001,326 MW1,338 MW
25 Oct, 14:001,328 MW1,322 MW
25 Oct, 15:001,349 MW1,321 MW
25 Oct, 16:001,352 MW1,338 MW
25 Oct, 17:001,396 MW1,381 MW
25 Oct, 18:001,412 MW1,407 MW
25 Oct, 19:001,397 MW1,409 MW
25 Oct, 20:001,351 MW1,377 MW
25 Oct, 21:001,284 MW1,313 MW
25 Oct, 22:001,209 MW1,231 MW
25 Oct, 23:001,156 MW1,168 MW
26 Oct, 00:001,110 MW1,131 MW
26 Oct, 01:001,092 MW1,110 MW
26 Oct, 02:001,083 MW1,090 MW
26 Oct, 03:001,097 MW1,102 MW
26 Oct, 04:001,143 MW1,155 MW
26 Oct, 05:001,259 MW1,268 MW
26 Oct, 06:001,407 MW1,418 MW
26 Oct, 07:001,506 MW1,505 MW
26 Oct, 08:001,508 MW1,531 MW
26 Oct, 09:001,500 MW1,530 MW
26 Oct, 10:001,483 MW1,528 MW
26 Oct, 11:001,499 MW1,524 MW
26 Oct, 12:001,509 MW1,523 MW
26 Oct, 13:001,512 MW1,515 MW
26 Oct, 14:001,513 MW1,500 MW
26 Oct, 15:001,507 MW1,497 MW
26 Oct, 16:001,528 MW1,509 MW
26 Oct, 17:001,573 MW1,548 MW
26 Oct, 18:001,581 MW1,561 MW
26 Oct, 19:001,534 MW1,541 MW
26 Oct, 20:001,493 MW1,490 MW
26 Oct, 21:001,398 MW1,416 MW
26 Oct, 22:001,398 MW1,326 MW
26 Oct, 23:001,156 MW1,254 MW
27 Oct, 00:001,185 MWn/a
27 Oct, 01:001,148 MWn/a
27 Oct, 02:001,125 MWn/a
27 Oct, 03:001,133 MWn/a
27 Oct, 04:001,176 MWn/a
27 Oct, 05:001,286 MWn/a
27 Oct, 06:001,429 MWn/a
27 Oct, 07:001,512 MWn/a
27 Oct, 08:001,533 MWn/a
27 Oct, 09:001,515 MWn/a
27 Oct, 10:001,517 MWn/a
27 Oct, 11:001,496 MWn/a
27 Oct, 12:001,501 MWn/a
27 Oct, 13:001,467 MWn/a
27 Oct, 14:001,451 MWn/a
27 Oct, 15:001,428 MWn/a
27 Oct, 16:001,449 MWn/a
27 Oct, 17:001,508 MWn/a
27 Oct, 18:001,528 MWn/a
27 Oct, 19:001,497 MWn/a
27 Oct, 20:001,448 MWn/a
27 Oct, 21:001,376 MWn/a
27 Oct, 22:001,294 MWn/a
27 Oct, 23:001,225 MWn/a
28 Oct, 00:001,166 MW1,164 MW
28 Oct, 01:001,143 MW1,150 MW
28 Oct, 02:001,137 MW1,112 MW
28 Oct, 03:001,136 MW1,127 MW
28 Oct, 04:001,185 MW1,174 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (695 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ava_2026,
  title = {{AVA Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ava/}
}

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