Forecast Error

Forecast error is the difference between the electricity demand a grid operator predicted a day ahead and what was actually recorded, usually shown as a percentage of actual demand. A positive error means the forecast came in too high; a negative one means it came in too low. A persistent bias in one direction, rather than random noise around zero, usually points to a systematic issue such as unaccounted weather sensitivity rather than a one off miss.

Worked Example

AECI's day ahead forecast for its most recently reported hour was 1,660 MW against actual demand of 1,860 MW, a forecast error of -10.8%. See the full figures.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Forecast Error: What It Means. https://worldpowermonitor.com/glossary/forecast-error/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Forecast Error: What It Means. Data as of 2026-09-21. https://worldpowermonitor.com/glossary/forecast-error/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_glossary_forecast_error_2026,
  title = {{Forecast Error: What It Means}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-09-21.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/glossary/forecast-error/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/glossary/forecast-error/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.

Forecast Error

Worked Example

Related