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Data as of 2026-10-28
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Built 2026-10-28 (28 October 2026)

DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 28 September to 28 October 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for DUK was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026, and 92% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.6%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, DUK came 9 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 209 MW, against average demand of 11,240 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 28 September to 28 October 2026
Average error1.9%
Bias+0.6%
Hours within 5%92%
Worst miss1,485 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+61 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,485 MW (12.5%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 13,402 MW, reported 11,917 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-10-28. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00)
DUK day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DUK over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 3,750 7,500 11,250 15,000 21 Oct, 08:0022 Oct, 08:0023 Oct, 08:0024 Oct, 08:0025 Oct, 08:0026 Oct, 08:0027 Oct, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for DUK over the last 7 days of the window, to 28 Oct 2026, 07:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-10-28
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
21 Oct, 08:0012,020 MW11,696 MW
21 Oct, 09:0011,704 MW11,411 MW
21 Oct, 10:0011,390 MW11,105 MW
21 Oct, 11:0011,103 MW10,930 MW
21 Oct, 12:0010,993 MW10,909 MW
21 Oct, 13:0011,006 MW10,998 MW
21 Oct, 14:0011,023 MW11,140 MW
21 Oct, 15:0011,160 MW11,335 MW
21 Oct, 16:0011,396 MW11,553 MW
21 Oct, 17:0011,622 MW11,667 MW
21 Oct, 18:0011,714 MW11,741 MW
21 Oct, 19:0011,922 MW11,753 MW
21 Oct, 20:0011,658 MW11,497 MW
21 Oct, 21:0011,117 MW10,934 MW
21 Oct, 22:0010,446 MW10,284 MW
21 Oct, 23:009,802 MW9,724 MW
22 Oct, 00:009,344 MW9,446 MW
22 Oct, 01:009,175 MW9,202 MW
22 Oct, 02:009,101 MW9,081 MW
22 Oct, 03:009,137 MW9,150 MW
22 Oct, 04:009,445 MW9,453 MW
22 Oct, 05:0010,175 MW10,227 MW
22 Oct, 06:0011,351 MW11,252 MW
22 Oct, 07:0012,050 MW11,946 MW
22 Oct, 08:0012,068 MW11,955 MW
22 Oct, 09:0011,741 MW11,606 MW
22 Oct, 10:0011,444 MW11,199 MW
22 Oct, 11:0011,158 MW10,939 MW
22 Oct, 12:0011,018 MW10,869 MW
22 Oct, 13:0011,046 MW10,935 MW
22 Oct, 14:0011,059 MW11,044 MW
22 Oct, 15:0011,202 MW11,199 MW
22 Oct, 16:0011,380 MW11,407 MW
22 Oct, 17:0011,547 MW11,545 MW
22 Oct, 18:0011,595 MW11,700 MW
22 Oct, 19:0011,789 MW11,793 MW
22 Oct, 20:0011,574 MW11,588 MW
22 Oct, 21:0011,050 MW11,062 MW
22 Oct, 22:0010,450 MW10,441 MW
22 Oct, 23:009,799 MW9,854 MW
23 Oct, 00:009,396 MW9,694 MW
23 Oct, 01:009,170 MW9,462 MW
23 Oct, 02:009,079 MW9,357 MW
23 Oct, 03:009,130 MW9,430 MW
23 Oct, 04:009,391 MW9,725 MW
23 Oct, 05:0010,109 MW10,472 MW
23 Oct, 06:0011,160 MW11,461 MW
23 Oct, 07:0011,826 MW12,160 MW
23 Oct, 08:0011,875 MW12,187 MW
23 Oct, 09:0011,653 MW11,812 MW
23 Oct, 10:0011,427 MW11,321 MW
23 Oct, 11:0010,989 MW10,951 MW
23 Oct, 12:0010,781 MW10,706 MW
23 Oct, 13:0010,726 MW10,601 MW
23 Oct, 14:0010,678 MW10,575 MW
23 Oct, 15:0010,725 MW10,648 MW
23 Oct, 16:0010,890 MW10,810 MW
23 Oct, 17:0011,035 MW10,913 MW
23 Oct, 18:0011,067 MW11,073 MW
23 Oct, 19:0011,183 MW11,171 MW
23 Oct, 20:0010,923 MW11,072 MW
23 Oct, 21:0010,631 MW10,700 MW
23 Oct, 22:0010,202 MW10,283 MW
23 Oct, 23:009,741 MW9,812 MW
24 Oct, 00:009,289 MW9,377 MW
24 Oct, 01:009,040 MW9,128 MW
24 Oct, 02:008,913 MW9,018 MW
24 Oct, 03:008,845 MW9,055 MW
24 Oct, 04:008,960 MW9,208 MW
24 Oct, 05:009,211 MW9,543 MW
24 Oct, 06:009,696 MW10,049 MW
24 Oct, 07:0010,145 MW10,633 MW
24 Oct, 08:0010,502 MW11,000 MW
24 Oct, 09:0010,596 MW10,981 MW
24 Oct, 10:0010,483 MW10,654 MW
24 Oct, 11:0010,388 MW10,281 MW
24 Oct, 12:0010,146 MW9,959 MW
24 Oct, 13:009,975 MW9,737 MW
24 Oct, 14:009,822 MW9,671 MW
24 Oct, 15:009,846 MW9,740 MW
24 Oct, 16:009,996 MW9,921 MW
24 Oct, 17:0010,228 MW10,182 MW
24 Oct, 18:0010,394 MW10,514 MW
24 Oct, 19:0010,656 MW10,794 MW
24 Oct, 20:0010,523 MW10,763 MW
24 Oct, 21:0010,300 MW10,511 MW
24 Oct, 22:009,905 MW10,181 MW
24 Oct, 23:009,474 MW9,771 MW
25 Oct, 00:009,140 MW9,589 MW
25 Oct, 01:008,900 MW9,375 MW
25 Oct, 02:008,787 MW9,272 MW
25 Oct, 03:008,714 MW9,289 MW
25 Oct, 04:008,796 MW9,411 MW
25 Oct, 05:009,030 MW9,703 MW
25 Oct, 06:009,437 MW10,157 MW
25 Oct, 07:009,939 MW10,703 MW
25 Oct, 08:0010,418 MW11,001 MW
25 Oct, 09:0010,476 MW10,868 MW
25 Oct, 10:0010,183 MW10,435 MW
25 Oct, 11:0010,045 MW10,090 MW
25 Oct, 12:0010,008 MW9,879 MW
25 Oct, 13:0010,010 MW9,756 MW
25 Oct, 14:0010,009 MW9,728 MW
25 Oct, 15:0010,127 MW9,844 MW
25 Oct, 16:0010,329 MW10,085 MW
25 Oct, 17:0010,658 MW10,381 MW
25 Oct, 18:0010,965 MW10,724 MW
25 Oct, 19:0011,350 MW11,006 MW
25 Oct, 20:0011,089 MW10,963 MW
25 Oct, 21:0010,654 MW10,617 MW
25 Oct, 22:0010,063 MW10,147 MW
25 Oct, 23:009,488 MW9,703 MW
26 Oct, 00:009,103 MW9,397 MW
26 Oct, 01:008,924 MW9,236 MW
26 Oct, 02:008,851 MW9,183 MW
26 Oct, 03:008,927 MW9,298 MW
26 Oct, 04:009,262 MW9,685 MW
26 Oct, 05:0010,027 MW10,588 MW
26 Oct, 06:0011,251 MW11,764 MW
26 Oct, 07:0011,952 MW12,525 MW
26 Oct, 08:0012,011 MW12,512 MW
26 Oct, 09:0011,721 MW12,080 MW
26 Oct, 10:0011,386 MW11,623 MW
26 Oct, 11:0011,183 MW11,279 MW
26 Oct, 12:0011,073 MW11,128 MW
26 Oct, 13:0011,066 MW11,096 MW
26 Oct, 14:0011,074 MW11,080 MW
26 Oct, 15:0011,195 MW11,171 MW
26 Oct, 16:0011,396 MW11,365 MW
26 Oct, 17:0011,647 MW11,557 MW
26 Oct, 18:0011,870 MW11,857 MW
26 Oct, 19:0012,119 MW12,020 MW
26 Oct, 20:0011,741 MW11,796 MW
26 Oct, 21:0011,148 MW11,249 MW
26 Oct, 22:0010,492 MW10,596 MW
26 Oct, 23:009,850 MW10,020 MW
27 Oct, 00:009,460 MW9,538 MW
27 Oct, 01:009,267 MW9,311 MW
27 Oct, 02:009,204 MW9,209 MW
27 Oct, 03:009,288 MW9,272 MW
27 Oct, 04:009,614 MW9,591 MW
27 Oct, 05:0010,393 MW10,393 MW
27 Oct, 06:0011,548 MW11,466 MW
27 Oct, 07:0012,185 MW12,156 MW
27 Oct, 08:0012,173 MW12,161 MW
27 Oct, 09:0011,823 MW11,798 MW
27 Oct, 10:0011,410 MW11,433 MW
27 Oct, 11:0011,262 MW11,208 MW
27 Oct, 12:0011,147 MW11,183 MW
27 Oct, 13:0011,163 MW11,271 MW
27 Oct, 14:0011,217 MW11,346 MW
27 Oct, 15:0011,354 MW11,522 MW
27 Oct, 16:0011,557 MW11,751 MW
27 Oct, 17:0011,866 MW11,904 MW
27 Oct, 18:0011,923 MW12,067 MW
27 Oct, 19:0012,175 MW12,107 MW
27 Oct, 20:0011,803 MW11,790 MW
27 Oct, 21:0011,244 MW11,139 MW
27 Oct, 22:0010,491 MW10,408 MW
27 Oct, 23:009,814 MW9,801 MW
28 Oct, 00:009,388 MW9,329 MW
28 Oct, 01:009,135 MW9,054 MW
28 Oct, 02:009,044 MW8,903 MW
28 Oct, 03:009,039 MW8,932 MW
28 Oct, 04:009,314 MW9,203 MW
28 Oct, 05:0010,049 MW9,943 MW
28 Oct, 06:0011,205 MW10,959 MW
28 Oct, 07:0011,756 MW11,663 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_duk_2026,
  title = {{DUK Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-10-28. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/duk/}
}

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